WagerTalk Alliance of American Football Logs

WagerTalk Alliance of American Football Logs

The Alliance of American Football Week 5 team performances represented more of what was envisioned when the league set up the guidelines and rules the first season. The time and situation was perfectly set up by the lowest-scoring NFL championship in Super Bowl history. Super Sunday saw the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams play out a 13-3 victory for Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Less than a week later the AAF season openers kicked off with high scoring expectations.

WagerTalk Alliance of American Football Logs

Ralph Michaels of WagerTalk publishes the websites AAF Logs each and every week. Ralph noted the over-under trends in the league did a 180 in Week 5. Michaels and myself did a video shoot discussing the league, the rules and how the game was playing out across the first three weeks of the inaugural season.

Ralph Michaels Week #5 Alliance of American Football Team Logs


Vegas and Offshore Sportsbook AAF Lines

In brief the video dialogue encompassed the expectations, rules and how we saw the bookmakers accessing the league. Accordingly how games would transpire.   Most importantly what the perception of the public would be as to establish weekly lines. The majority of the sportsbook directors believed, as I did, that totals would be higher in this league than the National Football League. I forecast that the totals in the league would be favorable investments in the first trio of weekly scheduled events. Furthermore playing the over on totals that I assumed would open in the neighborhood of the high 40’s.

To my chagrin most Vegas and Offshore books had first week totals in the mid-50’s. Hence making investments on “over-the-totals” unattractive and under the closing numbers against my initial projections.

After three weeks of the AFF regular season the first 12 contests saw the totals cash to the under at a 9-3 (75%) clip. The per-week average scoreboard sums through three Saturday and Sundays checked in at 38.3, 40.3, and 39.5 points, respectively. Following Week 4 the leagues overs-to-unders were 4-12 overall.

Alliance of American Football Format and Rules

A quick look at a number of the league rules that encourage and set up scoring and quickly played games.

The ambition of the originators of the format aimed has games being play in 2 and one-half hours. This is about 30 minutes shorter than the NFL average. The AAF halftimes are 13-minutes. And the rest and recover time between quarters is 3-minutes. While the more popular the league becomes the one rule that figures to change is the mere 1-minute stoppages after punts, points-after-touchdown and timeouts.

There are no kickoffs of any kind. Teams begin each series after a scoring play at the 25-yard line.

Instead of onside kicks, a team gets to attempt a fourth-and-10 from its own 35-yard line and keeps the ball if it converts. Conversely if the AAF’s replacement for onside kicks, the 4th and 10 yard play is a failed attempt, it awards the opposing (defense) team taking over where the plays is downed.

The play clock is 30 seconds instead of 40 in an attempt to speed up the game and give offenses more plays.

Penalties are almost de-emphasized; e.g. offensive holding, in an obvious attempt to help scoring.

Teams must execute a two-point conversion after every touchdown.

Handicapping Alliance of American Football Key Numbers

Note that when handicapping games the latter rule forces one to place and emphasis on different tradition key numbers in the NFL and college football. The focus when handicapping a point spread in the AAF should set the key numbers at 2, 6 and 8 rather than 3, 4 and 7 in NFL and college ball.

In large the AAF is promoting excitement, scoring and less time between plays. pimping scoring.

This past weekend, Week 5, was easily the most entertaining of the season. Two games were decided by game-winning kicks. The preseason favorites to earn the AFF Championship, Arizona, overcame a 26-point lead, but fell short of converting their comeback into a victory. And all four game exceeded the oddsmakers closing totals.

In the video below that Ralph and I shot nearly two weeks ago we discussed that the oddsmaker and gamers would eventually witness a morph in scoring. The offenses in the league were behind the defenses in the first month of the season. That is, however, no longer the case.

Ralph Michaels and Tony Finn Alliance of American Football Video


Finally don’t forget to visit the WagerTalk Video home page for more Free Picks and Self Handicapping Tips.


WagerTalk Alliance of American Football Logs

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