Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns: Direct from Las Vegas, WagerTalk.com TV host Marco D’Angelo (@MarcoInVegas) and Dwayne Bryant (@DB_BettingPicks) breakdown Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns odds and give their free picks and predictions on their NFL Week #1 game on September 10 from FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio.
The San Francisco 49ers end their 2016 season the same way they started it — at home against a division rival. The 49ers host the NFC West champion Seattle Seahawks on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.
The 49ers and Seahawks met in Seattle way back in Week 3. Seattle won that one 37-18, going way over the total of 42. I expect a much lower score this time around.
Seattle’s offense has been notorious for disappearing on the road this season. The Seahawks average a healthy 28.4 points per game at home, but that dips to a dismal 14.6 points per game on the road. Seattle’s road games have produced an average of just 33.6 points this season.
The ‘Niners defense is awful, but they do play better at home. San Francisco has allowed a whopping 33.8 points per game on the road, but that number shrinks to 26.4 points per game allowed at home.
This has been an Under series. The last four in this series played by the bay have all gone Under. The average total points scored in those four games was just 25!
Based on all of the above, today’s posted total looks way too high. I recommend playing the UNDER.
NFC Sunday Free Pick is a play on UNDER the TOTAL
#15 Louisville Cardinals (9-3) vs #19 LSU Tigers
Citrus Bowl Spread: LSU -3 (o/u59.5)
Tomorrow, 11:00 AM on ABC
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
An AFC South rematch takes place in Jacksonville on Saturday, as the 2-12 Jaguars host the 8-6 Tennessee Titans. Tennessee (-4.5, 43.5) won the first meeting 36-22 as 3-point home favorites on a Thursday night a couple months ago. The Titans are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five same-season division rematches when they won the first meeting.
The Jaguars should be motivated not only because this is a division revenge game, but because they will be playing for a new head coach. Gus Bradley was finally fired after last weekend’s game. Former Buffalo Bills head coach Doug Marrone will be the interim head coach for the remainder of the season. Jaguars players should feel like they are playing for their jobs under what will be a new regime.
The Titans do not have a good history in Jacksonville. Despite the Jaguars seemingly being perennial division door mats, the Titans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Jacksonville.
This is not a good situational spot for Tennessee. The Titans are coming off back-to-back wins over Denver and Kansas City, and they have a crucial AFC South revenge showdown with Houston at home next weekend in a game that could decide the AFC South title. It would not surprise me to see the Titans come out flat in this one.
The Jaguars have some good young talent on defense. It didn’t show on the field the last time these two met. I expect a much better effort this time around at home and under a new coach.
In what I expect to be a tightly contested game throughout, I recommend grabbing the points with JACKSONVILLE.
Two NFC franchises take to the comforts of the Georgia Dome on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta when the Falcons (-14, 50.5) host the 49ers. Game day kickoff is scheduled at 4:05 p.m. ET.
A non-division NFC clash takes place at 1:00 ET on Sunday in Atlanta, as the Falcons host the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are off a 23-17 home loss to the Jets, which is their 12th straight loss since their Week 1 win over the Rams. The Falcons are off a 42-14 beating of the Rams in which they led 42-0 in the third quarter. I am recommending a play on the OVER.
The Over is a perfect 6-0 in Atlanta’s home games this season. These games went Over the posted totals by an average of 12.5 points per contest. There have been an average of 63 points scored in Falcons home games this season. 33.5 of those points belong to Atlanta. They should be able to exceed that average against this pathetic 49ers defense, which is DEAD LAST in the NFL in points allowed per game (30.2) and yards allowed per game (415.3).
If you throw out the ‘Niners’ road game in Chicago from two weeks ago (adverse weather conditions), the Over is 4-1 in their other five road games. Those five games went Over by an average of 12.7 points per contest. The 49ers allowed 36.4 points in those games.
As long as Chip Kelly is leading the 49ers, they will play at a break-neck speed on offense. That serves us well because: A) It leads to more offensive plays per game; and B) It exposes an already lousy defense by keeping them on the field for more-than-average plays.
The Falcons just might break 40 points again this week. QB Matt Ryan will have no trouble spreading the ball around if WR Julio Jones can’t go. There is also the very good possibility of Atlanta having a big fourth-quarter lead (they are a 2-TD favorite, after all), and giving up a garbage-time TD or two. I’m expecting this game to end up around 58 total points.
NFC Sunday Prediction is a high scoring contest and a play OVER the TOTAL.
It’s an AFC vs NFC matchup on Sunday at 1:00 ET, as the Indianapolis Colts visit the Minnesota Vikings (-5, 46). The host Vikings are off a 25-16 road win in Jacksonville, while the visiting Colts are off a demoralizing 22-17 home loss to their division rivals from Houston. I am recommending a play on the OVER.
When you think “Vikings,” you naturally think “bet Under” (especially at home). This total is the highest total of any Vikings home game this season, and for good reason. The Vikings secondary is vulnerable without talented FS Harrison Smith. The Colts duo of QB Andrew Luck and WR T.Y. Hilton will take advantage.
The Colts’ defense is very subpar, to say the least. They rank 27th in QB Rating allowed (97.2), and 26th in yards per rush allowed (4.5). If ever there was a game in which this Vikings offense was going to put up some points, this one should be it.
I liken the Vikings to the Broncos in that both teams have a stellar defense, mediocre QB play, and little in the way of a running game. But that didn’t stop the Broncos from hanging 34 points on this Colts defense in Denver in Week 2.
With Minnesota home games being played indoors, we need not worry about wind or any adverse weather conditions. The Colts also play their home games in a dome, so the surface will be to their liking.
Counting the game against Jacksonville in London, the Over is a perfect 6-0 in Colts road games this season.
Only two of Minnesota’s six home games have gone Over this season, but: A) They averaged 25 points in their four home games against non-division opponents (only 16.5 in the two division games); and B) One of the two Overs just so happens to be the Vikings’ only other home game against an AFC opponent. The Vikings put up 31 points against a good Houston defense. That happens when teams are unfamiliar with each other. This game offers a similar situation.
Sunday NFL Non-Conference Free Pick is a play on OVER the TOTAL.
Key NFC South battle taking place in Florida on Sunday, as the 7-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the 5-7 New Orleans Saints. I am recommending a play on NEW ORLEANS +2.5 (+100).
This is the perfect “buy low, sell high” spot. We are “buying low” on New Orleans off a double-digit home loss to Detroit last Sunday. We are also “selling high” on Tampa Bay off four straight wins that have catapulted them into a first-place tie with Atlanta.
The Saints embarrassing home loss to the Lions last Sunday came on the heels of a 49-point outburst against the Rams the week prior. The Saints are now 0-3 this season when coming off a 40+ point performance. Time to bounce back against their division-leading rival, and the Saints know they can’t afford another loss if they want a chance at a playoff spot.
The Buccaneers’ four-game winning streak includes wins over the Chiefs in Kansas City, Seattle, and at San Diego. Not too shabby. That recent success leads them to being a small favorite over Drew Brees and company in this one. The chalk role is not a role that Tampa Bay handles very well, as they are just 2-7 SU and ATS in that role since the start of the 2014 season.
The Saints should not only be highly motivated off that embarrassing home loss, but they should also hold a bit of a psychological edge over the Bucs. After all, the Saints have won eight of the last nine meetings, including the last four at Raymond James Stadium.
I love backing top QBs who are off poor performances. Drew Brees is in that situation here, as he threw 3 interceptions and NO TD passes last Sunday. Brees will be on a major mission in this one.
The second meeting this season between these AFC North and Ohio rivals. The Bengals took the first meeting in Cincinnati, 31-17. I am recommending a play on CLEVELAND +5.5 in this rematch.
I know, it’s the winless Browns. I get it. It’s one of those “hold your nose” plays, but sometimes those are the best bets to make. And we don’t need them to win outright, although they just might.
This looks like the Browns’ best chance to get a win this season. The rest of their schedule includes trips to Buffalo and Pittsburgh with a final home game against the Chargers wedged in between. Like I said, this looks like Cleveland’s best chance to get a W.
The Bengals are beat up. They lost two of their best offensive weapons, WR A.J. Green and RB Giovani Bernard. They’ve only scored about 17 points per game on the road this season, and most of that was with Green & Bernard.
The Browns get RGIII back under center for this one. I’m sure he will be rusty, but I expect the Browns to lean on the ground game in the cold, wintry conditions anyway.
The Browns are off their bye, so they are rested and should be well-prepared. And their head coach, Hue Jackson, knows the Bengals well. He was their offensive coordinator before coming to Cleveland this season.
The Bengals already beat the Browns by two TDs this season, and they know Cleveland is winless. Off a blowout win over the Eagles and with their bigger rivals from Pittsburgh on deck, nobody could blame the Bengals for looking past the Browns in this one.
CLEVELAND +5.5 is worth a shot in this one.
Free AFC North Pick to Click is on the Cleveland Browns plus the points.