Early Week 13 NFL Sunday Prediction: Chiefs vs Falcons

An AFC-NFC matchup takes place in the Georgia Dome on Sunday at 1 PM ET, as the Atlanta Falcons (-4, 50) host the Kansas City Chiefs.  I am recommending a play on ATLANTA.

The Chiefs are coming off a come-from-behind upset win over the Broncos in Denver, 30-27 in overtime.  Kansas City is in a very difficult spot here.  Coming off that huge divisional win, the Chiefs have an even bigger game on deck against the Raiders for the AFC West lead.  Ask Dallas how difficult these “division sandwich spots” are, as they barely escaped Minnesota with a win in the same scenario on Thursday night.

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The Chiefs have been winning in spite of themselves.  They were outgained by a whopping 191 yards in Denver.  The week prior, they lost at home to Tampa Bay as a TD favorite.  KC was outgained by 85 yards and had to rally from 17 points back to win in Carolina the week before that.  And they were outgained by a massive 218 yards when they escaped with a 19-14 home win over lowly Jacksonville before that.

The Falcons are off a big 38-19 win over the Cardinals.  Atlanta is playing very well, especially offensively.  Atlanta’s weakness is pass defense, but the Chiefs lack the vertical passing attack to take advantage.  The Falcons have a well-balanced, explosive offense that is tough to defend for teams like the Chiefs who are not familiar with them.

The Chiefs just seem to keep finding ways to win under head coach Andy Reid.  KC is 19-4 SU in their last 23 games dating back to last season.  The oddsmakers know that, yet they opened the Chiefs as ‘dogs of more than a FG.  Looks to me like they’re trying to get bettors to grab KC.  I’m not biting.

I expect Kansas City, off a big division win with a bigger division game on deck, to come out a little flat here.  I recommend a play on ATLANTA.

Early Week 13 NFL Sunday Predictions is a play on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points.

 

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Read moreEarly Week 13 NFL Sunday Prediction: Chiefs vs Falcons

Big 12 College Football Free Pick to Click: Baylor at West Virginia

Russell Athletic Bowl Free Pick: West Virginia vs. Miami

West Virginia’s Big 12 Conference title ambition died with a home loss to Oklahoma two weeks ago. However, the 13th-ranked Mountaineers (-17, 68.5) have the opportunity to climb in the holiday bowl schedule with a Saturday win over Baylor Bears. The Bears come into this 3:30 PM ET Saturday showdown in Morgantown having lost five straight games (SU and ATS) since a 6-0 start to the season.  They were favored in all but one of those five defeats.

 

 

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Baylor just has the look of a team that has packed it in.  After five straight subpar performances, why should we expect anything different in this one?

West Virginia is coming off a 49-19 blowout win over Iowa State.  The Mountaineers have plenty of motivation heading into this game.

West Virginia can match the school record with an 11-win season if they beat Baylor and win their bowl game.

Secondly, it’s the final home game for the seniors.  The last time they were on their home field they were getting blasted by Oklahoma, 56-28.  They obviously want to leave their home field for the last time in victorious fashion.

Lastly, the Mountaineers have revenge for a 62-38 beating they took at Baylor last season.  Embarrassment is a strong motivator, so West Virginia will be happy to run it up.  “We all know what this one means,” defensive coordinator Tony Gibson told The Dominion Post.  “We know what Baylor brings. We’ve had December 3, 2016 marked down for a long time.”

With Baylor looking DOA and the Mountaineers having multiple reasons to “bring it,” I recommend laying it with WEST VIRGINIA.

Big 12 College Football Free Pick to Click is a play on West Virginia minus the points.

 

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Read moreBig 12 College Football Free Pick to Click: Baylor at West Virginia

Free SEC Pick of the Day: Arkansas at Missouri

Arkansas vs Virginia Tech

SEC College Football prime-time takes place in Columbia, Missouri, this Friday afternoon with the Arkansas Razorbacks (-8, 72.5) and the Missouri Tigers scheduled to kickoff at 2:30 p.m ET at Faurot Field.

This summer few would have called the Missouri Tigers and offensive minded squad with a much more defensive-first scheme. That hasn’t been the case and points seem to be the “word” today from Mid-American in this Battle Line Rivalry.

 

 

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Courtesy of Dwayne Bryant

Another game where I feel the more motivated team also owns the better run defense AND is getting points.  And not only are they getting points, but they are getting more than a TD at home.

Arkansas is 7-4.  Their next game will be a bowl game at a time and place to be determined.  Missouri is just 3-8, making this home game their final game of the season.  You know the Tigers want to end the season with a win in front of the home faithful.

Missouri has the better rushing offense (5 yards per carry vs Arkansas’ 4.5 ypc) and the better run defense (5.4 yards per carry allowed vs Arkansas’ 6.3 ypca).  Definitely not good run D numbers for either side, but the edge definitely goes to the home dog.

In a game where neither team figures to get many stops, the home Tigers and their 7th-ranked offense should be able to stay within a TD.

Free SEC Pick of the Day is a play on MISSOURI +8.

 

 

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Read moreFree SEC Pick of the Day: Arkansas at Missouri

Free NFC Sunday Week 11 Pick: Chicago at New York Giants

Free NFC Sunday Week 11 Pick: Chicago at New York Giants

The Chicago Bears and the New York Giants (-7.5, 42) angle in a conference tilt at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey at 1:00 p.m ET on Sunday afternoon. Giants’ quarterback Eli Manning hosts Bears’ signal-caller Jay Cutler in a game that is expected to have a wintry mix of weather and windy conditions that include gusts of up to 30 m.p.h. in the Meadowlands.

Read moreFree NFC Sunday Week 11 Pick: Chicago at New York Giants

Saturday College Football Free Pick: Middle Tennessee at Charlotte

Saturday College Football Free Pick: Middle Tennessee at Charlotte

The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-4.5, 60) square off against the Charlotte 49ers on Saturday afternoon with kickoff at 2:00 p.m ET at Jerry Richardson Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

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I am recommending a play on [344] CHARLOTTE +4.5 (-110).

You can bet Charlotte has had this game circled since this season’s schedule was released.  Last season, Middle Tennessee State destroyed Charlotte, 73-14.  Getting whipped so embarrassingly last season ensures that we get Charlotte’s maximum effort for the full sixty minutes in this one.

As if they need any more motivation, Charlotte also knows they need to win their final two games of the season to become bowl eligible.  No room for error.

Charlotte also has motivation for a very disappointing home loss to Rice last weekend.  Charlotte was a double-digit home favorite, but lost 22-21.  I’m guessing they were looking ahead to this huge revenge affair.

Middle Tennessee State has struggled since star QB Brent Stockstill went down with a broken collarbone.  Backup John Urzua, a redshirt freshman, has struggled.  As a result, MTSU has gotten blown out in each of their last two games despite being a sizable favorite in both contests.  With MTSU already having collected their sixth win to become bowl eligible, there is little in the way of motivation for the visitor here.

Charlotte will be motivated for several different reasons, while MTSU figures to struggle once again due to lack of motivation and the absence of their star QB.  So, I recommend a play on [344] CHARLOTTE +4.5 (-110).

Saturday College Football Free Pick is on Charlotte plus the points.

 

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Read moreSaturday College Football Free Pick: Middle Tennessee at Charlotte

NBA Free Pick: Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat

NBA Free Pick: Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat

There is a “Major” scheduling advantage for Atlanta in this one, as they have had two days off since cruising to a 21-point win over the 76ers.  Atlanta also had two days off prior to that Sixers game, meaning they have played only once since Thursday.  Talk about being well rested!

The Atlanta Hawks (-6.5, 199.5) visit Miami to square off against the Heat with tip-off scheduled at 7:30 p.m ET, Tuesday night at  American Airlines Arena.

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On the flip side, Miami just played in San Antonio last night.  Not only did they have to travel back to Miami for this contest, but that Spurs game likely took something out of this Heat squad.  Miami was down by 15 points at halftime, and had to expend some serious energy to close the final margin to four.  This is also Miami’s third game in four days, which only adds to the fatigue factor.

Atlanta has covered all seven games they’ve won this season.  Miami is 1-6 ATS in the seven games they’ve lost, with the only SU loss/ATS win coming last night in San Antonio.  Given the huge scheduling edge for the Hawks, coupled with the talent advantage, and I can’t call for a Miami upset.  And if Atlanta wins, it looks like we know who covers as well.

I am recommending a play on the ATLANTA HAWKS -6.5 (-110).

Your NBA Free Pick for Tuesday is the Atlanta Hawks minus the points.

 

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Read moreNBA Free Pick: Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat