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The Cincinnati Bearcats enter this contest off an impressive 52-14 win over Marshall, which is significant in that the Bearcats are a profitable 9-4 ATS in their last thirteen games following a win by 20 or more points. Cincinnati has played a substantially more difficult schedule, including games against UCLA and Ohio State.
After losing its season opener at home against the Titans, the Cleveland Browns’ hype train hits the road to face the Jets under the Monday Night lights. Despite being upset as 5.5-point home favorites, the Browns remain grossly overrated by the betting market, which is partially driven by public misperception.
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My primary math model only favors Missouri by 10.3 points in this game and the Tigers are grossly overrated this season. Second-round NFL draft pick Drew Lock is no longer calling the signals for the Tigers; former Clemson starter Kelly Bryant is under center for Missouri.
After an extremely disappointing 2016 campaign, Michigan State has bounced back with a vengeance this season, winning six of its first seven games. The Spartans are now traveling for the third time in four weeks and have a huge conference affair against Penn State on deck.
The Marlins have now won five straight games versus National League East foes after last night’s 5-0 win over Atlanta and are 8-2 in their last ten games versus teams with a losing record.
The Braves’ anemic offense is averaging just 4.2 runs per game at home and 4.4 runs per game versus division opponents this season, whereas the surging Marlins’ lineup is averaging 7.3 runs over its last seven games, 4.9 runs per game versus left-handed starters and 4.8 runs per game in divisional contests.
The bad news for Atlanta starter Jaime Garcia, who owns a 3.16 ERA, 4.11 FIP and a 4.64 SIERA, is the fact that the Braves are mustering just 2.7 runs per game in his twelve starts in 2017.
In Garcia’s last three outings, the Braves have only scored three runs, all of which resulted in losses. Miami outfielder Giancarlo Stanton is 7-for-10 with three home runs and six RBIs against Garcia in his career. On April 12, Stanton crushed two home runs off Garcia at Marlins Park. The exit speeds, per Statcast, were 115.6 mph and 110.1 mph!
Buffalo’s 2016 campaign was defined by an ineffective coaching staff, together with turmoil in the front office. The termination of head coach Rex Ryan was a significant step in the right decision after Ryan proved incapable of fielding a half-way decent stop unit. Make sure to check out our NFL database where you can look up historic results/stats for millions of NFL situations and our NFL Live Odds direct from Vegas! If you are looking for 2017-18 NFL Regular Season Lines for Weeks 1-16 you can find them here.
Seattle right-hander Yovani Gallardo has been surprisingly serviceable this season, posting a 4.58 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 4.23 xFIP and 4.63 SIERA. Of course, those peripherals are underwhelming but, frankly, I expected much worse from the veteran hurler.
Athletics vs Mariners
Today, 10:10 PM on NSCA, RTNW
Athletics vs Mariners Odds: Mariners -114 and over/under 8 (for latest MLB odds check out WagerTalk Live Lines)
Gallardo’s strikeout rate continues to decline (6.18 K/9) and his lack of command (3.43 BB/9) remains an issue. He has also struggled at home this season with a 4.76 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in three starts. However, Seattle backers will point to Gallardo’s solid 48.8% ground ball rate and his recent success against the Oakland Athletics (12 1/3 IP L/2 starts; 2 ER; 8 H; 13 K).
Seattle fans must be perplexed by the Mariners’ ineffective bullpen (5.21 ERA & 1.37 WHIP), especially in night games where the relief staff owns a horrible 5.48 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Oakland’s bullpen has been equally ineffective in 2017, posting a 4.73 ERA and 1.33 WHIP overall, including a 6.62 ERA and 1.72 WHIP on the road.
Boston Red Soxsouthpaw Chris Sale is making a lot of Red Sox fans happy with his impeccable 1.38 ERA and 0.74 WHIP this season, and that success should continue against a Minnesota Twins lineup that is averaging just 3.9 runs per game versus left-handed starters (.319 OBP; .701 OPS).
Behind Sale’s ERA are elite 12.42 K/9, 1.58 BB/9 and 0.39 HR/9 rates. Equally impressive is Sale’s 1.44 FIP, 2.14 xFIP and 2.12 SIERA.
Sale has become nearly impossible to predict under the tutelage of Boston’s pitching coaches. He is throwing his fastball less than he has in years (61% last year with the White Sox vs. 45.8% this season).
Sale’s first-pitch fastball rate has dropped 19 percentage points and has declined nearly 20 percentage points when batters are ahead in the count. The result is increased usage of his plus-slider (which rates better than Jacob deGrom’s) and plus-changeup (which rates better than Stephen Strasburg’s).
The 28-year-old is backed by a solid Boston bullpen that owns a 2.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP this season, including a 2.01 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in day games and a 2.14 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over its last seven games. Conversely, Minnesota’s middling bullpen enters today’s contest with a 4.29 ERA, including a 4.19 ERA at home and an 8.10 ERA in its last seven games.
Minnesota right-hander Ervin Santana leads the Majors in ERA (5-0, 0.66 ERA), although his 4.14 SIERA is far more predictive of his future results. The veteran hurler is ripe for regression based on his unsustainable .141 BABIP and 99.2% strand rate (are you kidding me?!).
Santana is 5-6 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in sixteen career starts against the Red Sox. The Twins are a money-burning 5-17 in Santana’s last 22 starts versus teams with a winning record, including 1-8 in his last nine starts at home.
Minnesota is also 17-35 versus American League East opponents, 15-37 versus .501 or greater opposition and 21-44 at home versus teams with a winning record.
With Boston standing at 6-0 in game 3 of a series and the Twins losing their last five game 3 situations, take the Red Sox and invest with confidence.
Free Sunday Funday MLB Pick is a play on the Boston Red Sox (list pitchers).