Black-Eyed Susan Stakes Preview and Predictions: The 94thBlack-Eyed Susan Stakes (Gr. 2) for three-year-old fillies will be run at Pimlico Race Course on Friday, May 18thwith a post time of 4:48 PM EST. The $250,000 purse will attract some of the top fillies in the country and it appears that they will be dealing with a very wet and most likely very messy track due to rain in the Baltimore area over Preakness weekend. Let’s take a look at the field for the race and then I will provide some recommended wagers. Black Eyed Susan Stakes Contenders and Predictions (Friday, May 19).
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|1. Tell Your Mama (20-1 ML)||Jockey: Javier Castellano||Trainer: Robert Hess Jr.|
This maiden has been busy as this will be the 11thrace of her career which only began in September 2017. She was a distant last in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly (Gr. 1) at Del Mar in November against a very talented field. She also ran fourth in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (Gr. 2) in March, but was 15 lengths behind the winner, Coach Rocks, who is also in this field. This one looks like she is only here to fill the field. She will not be breaking her maiden in Graded Stakes company.
|2. Midnight Disguise (4-1 ML)||Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.||Trainer: Linda Rice|
The question is will this filly bounce back from a disappointing fourth place finish in the Gazelle (Gr. 2) April 7that Aqueduct when she did not to appear to be the dominating force she has been in her short career. Trainer Linda Rice adds blinkers and that may keep her more focused on the task at hand. She should hit the board in this field.
|3. Coach Rocks (7-2 ML)||Jockey: Luis Saez||Trainer: Dale Romans|
The line maker made this filly the lukewarm favorite going into this race. She is the only competitor in this field who ran two weeks ago in the Kentucky Oaks (Gr. 1) and she faded at the end of that race so she may not like the distance. The Gulfstream Oaks (Gr. 2) winner has never raced on a sloppy or muddy track which she will most likely face at Pimlico. She has a chance to hit the board if she returns to form, but I feel she is poised for another letdown.
|4. Red Ruby (5-1 ML)||Jockey: Paco Lopez||Trainer: Kellyn Gorder|
Another lightly raced filly who broke her maiden in November at Churchill Downs will only be running in the fifth race of her career. She failed as the favorite last out in the Honeybee Stakes (Gr. 3) at Oaklawn Park, but has been training well. She appears to be fast enough to run with this crowd and has been training well so she will be on the end of my trifecta and superfecta.
|5. Mihrab (30-1 ML)||Jockey: Jevian Toledo||Trainer: Graham Motion|
The ninth place finisher in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (Gr. 2) won an optional claimer at Laurel Park by 8 lengths last out, but she is out classed in this field. She will mount a late run, but there will not be enough fading horses in this field for this one to pick up spots. She is a toss in my opinion.
|6. C. S. Incharge (15-1 ML)||Jockey: Julian Leparoux||Trainer: Dale Romans|
This filly finally broke her maiden after four attempts in January at Gulfstream Park. She followed that up with a win in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs in February and then took a two month layoff before returning a disappointing sixth in the Ashland Stakes (Gr. 1) at Keeneland on Blue Grass Stakes Day. She is not fast enough to run with this field and will not be on my tickets.
|7. Indy Union (10-1 ML)||Jockey: Jose Ortiz||Trainer: Jeremiah Englehart|
She has one win in six career races and that was in maiden company. She has not run a race fast enough to compete with this field, and she will not improve enough to merit wagering consideration.
|8. Goodonehoney (5-1 ML)||Jockey: Steve Hamilton||Trainer: Jason Egan|
This will only be the third career race for this Maryland bred filly who is undefeated in her short career. She has not faced the competition that she will see in this race, but she should improve on her last performance as this will only be the third start of her short career. She will try to go to the lead, but the more experienced riders will rate behind her and wait to make their move as she starts to fade.
|9. Sara Street (4-1 ML)||Jockey: Dylan Davis||Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin|
Another lightly raced filly, but this one has shown dramatic improvement in each of her starts and appears to be the one to beat in this field for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. She was the runner-up to Midnight Disguise in the Busher Stakes at Aqueduct on March 3rdand then followed that up with a tough run in the Gazelle Stakes (Gr. 2) at Aqueduct on April 7th. If she improves on either of those efforts, which I expect, she will have this field chasing but not catching her.
|10.Stakes on a Plane (20-1 ML)||Jockey: Sheldon Russell||Trainer: Jeff Talley|
Great name, not a great horse though. This one has finished behind most of horses in this field and has shown no improvement in her career. She is adding Lasix for the first time, but that will not be enough to make her competitive in this field. She is a complete toss.
Now that we know the field, how should we attack this race at the betting windows?
If we can get anywhere near the 4-1 Morning Line on Sara Street I will be betting her to win this race. I recommend a laddered betting structure using 15% of your Win-Place-Show budget for the race as a Win wager. 25% of your WPS budget for the Place wager and the remaining 60% as a Show wager. Normally I do not recommend Show betting as the pools are not deep enough to make Show wagers profitable, but on bigger days you can turn a profit in the Show pool.
Let’s also bet an exacta part-wheel using 9. Sara Street and 2. Midnight Disguise on top. We will use both of those entries in the second spot along with 3. Coach Rocks and 4. Red Ruby in the second position. Tell the teller, Pimlico Race 11, Exacta 2 and 9 with 2, 3, 4 and 9. This will cost you $12 on a $2 exacta wager.
We will key Sara Street on top in a trifecta wager, and then use the other three horses in our exacta wager in the second position. We will use the same three in the third position so tell your teller Pimlico Race 11, trifecta 9 with 2, 3, and 4 with 2, 3, and 4. A $1 trifecta will cost you $12 using this structure.
However you choose to wager on the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (Gr. 2) enjoy the day and remember to always to bet within your limits!