Boxing Breakdown Report for Saturday, September 14th

In what has become one of the most memorable dates in the boxing calendar, this Mexican Independence Day weekend will see one of the most muted line of matchups we’ve seen in a number of years as prime draw Canelo looks elsewhere, most notably at a possible bout with WBO light-heavyweight champ Sergey Kovalev later in the year, and leaves this Mexican Independence Day on a decidedly low-key note.

That leaves “lineal” heavyweight champion, and definite non-Mexican, Tyson “The Gypsy King” Fury to take center stage on one of the biggest dates in boxing as he faces off against undefeated, but completely untested, Swedish number one Otto Wallin in Las Vegas this Saturday night.

In what is basically a glorified sparring session for Fury as we wait for contacts to materialize for what hopefully will be a February showdown with WBC champ Deontay Wilder, this fight means little in the grand scheme of things and a Wallin upset here would be on the Buster Douglas seismometer scale in terms of great heavyweight upsets if he was to pull this one off on Saturday night.

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Similar to the Tom Schwarz fight back in June, Wallin should present very little problems for Fury, but whereas we had a premium play on the Under last time out, we lean Over on Saturday as the line posted for this fight is at 7.5 ( shop around though as there are still some 6.5’s out there at time of writing, notably Ladbrokes) and that’s a play we’ll be on for soft money as we think Fury will look to go a few rounds this time out instead of the 2nd round blowout he put on against Schwarz. Wallin is a southpaw and this will only be Fury’s second time out against a southpaw since his return to boxing in June of last year. Francesco Pianeta, his other southpaw opponent since his return saw the final bell in their bout in Belfast last August and we think it’ll be a somewhat similar result here on Saturday as Fury looks to go rounds against an agile left-hander.

The Over is the only way we would look in this one and we sense some value at 7.5 and a definite play at 6.5.

Emanuel Navarette will look to get the Mexican crowd in full swing as the co-main on that card as he defends his WBO junior featherweight title against Juan Miguel Elorde in what should be a comfortable victory for “Vaquero.”

In this weekend’s other matchups, Friday night sees some solid fights happening in New York as potential Lomachenko mandatory Devin Haney takes on Zaur Abdullaev for the vacant WBC interim lightweight title. A win here on Friday will propel the young American into the mix in one of the deepest divisions in boxing.

On the undercard of that fight, Michael Hunter continues to get his feet wet at heavyweight after his move up from cruiser as he takes on tough undefeated Russian Sergey Kuzmin. We like Hunter in that matchup but at -400 we’re not getting involved as the odds are right where they should be in our opinion as Kuzmin definitely has a puncher’s chance in that one.

Overall, there’s very little betting opportunity this weekend and definitely nothing we’d advise a major play on.

We do lean Over in the Fury vs. Wallin fight however and if you can still nab a 6.5 that’s definitely worth a small play.

We’ll be back in two weeks to preview an absolutely mouth-watering fight in Shawn Porter vs. Errol Spence as they put their IBF & WBC welterweight titles on the line in a highly anticipated unification clash in LA.

We also will have a 5% play posted up at Wagertalk for next month’s October 26th card in London. This is our first 5% boxing play of the year, and as anyone who’s been following us this year in boxing knows, we’ve been straight money over the last 6 months for some serious profit, so you definitely don’t miss out on that one!

We’ll be back in two weeks for the Porter vs. Spence breakdown so till then, good luck on your bets!