Bundesliga Free Play: Arminia Bielefeld vs Stuttgart January 20

Arminia Bielefeld vs Stuttgart Betting Preview

Both of these teams were promoted from Bundesliga 2 last year but Arminia has struggled much more so far. They have pulled themselves out of the relegation zone though, currently in 15th place and two points clear thanks to two wins and a draw in their last four games. Of course, those games came against Hertha Berlin, Hoffenheim and Schalke, all of whom have negative goal differentials and negative xG differentials.

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Stuttgart however, is not one of those teams. Although they only have five wins this year, they also only have four losses thanks seven draws in 16 matches. But they have been rather unlucky with those results as they have a +8 goal differential and an average xG differential of +0.31 per game thanks to the 5th highest xG average in the league behind only the big boys Bayern, Dortmund, Leipzig and Frankfurt.

Arminia has the 2nd worst xG differential in the league at -1.09 as they average the lowest xG in the league at 0.68 per game while allowing the 4th most xGA per game at 1.77. They have struggled with creativity in front of the goal and they are simply not a team Iโ€™m excited to get behind or trust to score goals when needed as they have just ten goals all season in 16 matches while Stuttgart has netted 32, tied for 2nd most in the league.

Stuttgart is favored for a good reason, take advantage of the short price on them.

TAKE STUTTGART TO WIN (ML or -0.5) – Line Parameter: 4% to -0.75 but pay up to -140 on the ML

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Meet the Capper: Nick Borrman

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional โ€˜footballโ€™ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Of course, you canโ€™t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

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