Always bet the home dog. This has been in the front page of the sports betting bible for years, there is just one catch. Now everyone knows it. So what does that mean?
From my 3 years at Pinnacle Sports I learned it means that now it has come full circle to where everyone is betting a home dog and pushes the line to where the value is on the road favorite in many occasions. That among a few other key reasons, is why I like the Cincinnati Bengals this week at -1.5.
Free NFL Pick: Cincinnati Bengals Spread -1.5
There are a few key points that make this a great game to target.
- The Bengals are coming off a bye. They are fully rested and will have had two weeks to prepare for this game. On top of that they were playing the best football in the NFL going into the bye.
- The Bengals are the most complete team in the NFL, period, full stop. The Broncos and Seahawks may have better defenses, and the Patriots and Packers may have better offenses, but the Bengals are the most complete team. Geno Atkins is back to his old form and on pace for a 10+ sack season. While their secondary is aging, it is very talented and a week’s rest should help that immensely. Their offense can run or pass and has so many weapons it is easy to create a mismatch. It’s no surprise they are 6-0.
- Ben Roethlisberger is not 100%. Big Ben’s strengths are arm strength and prolonging plays by being a nightmare to tackle. With a MCL sprain he will have trouble using his lower body to power throws to the numbers and in tight windows, it will also impact his mobility and ability to extend plays. When you combine that with his biggest weakness, overconfidence, it is a recipe for disaster. Expect Ben to operate in this game as if he were 100% when he is clearly not, he will still go for tight throws and should have some interceptions with the Bengals having no problem pressuring quarterbacks.
Meet the Bookie: Matthew Holt from CG Technology
Direct from Las Vegas on WagerTalk TV host Scott Spreitzer (@scottwins) and special guest Matthew Holt (@MatthewHoltVP) Vice President of Business Development from CG Technology (the largest licensed bookmaker in Nevada) talk sports gambling from the other side of the counter.