Free College Football Saturday Pick: Louisiana Tech at North Texas

Following a disastrous 1-11 season (tied for the worst record in program history), North Texas hired head coach Seth Littrell to turn the program around.  And, despite what many thought was going to be a rebuilding year in Denton for the 1st-year head coach, the Mean Green are 4-4 SU and 5-2 ATS this season, including three upset wins over Rice (42-35; 6.5-point underdogs), Marshall (38-21; 13.5-point underdogs) and Army (35-18; 17.5-point underdogs).

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-20.5, 66.5) visit the North Texas Mean Green for a scheduled 5:30 p.m ET kickoff at Apogee Stadium in Denton on Saturday.

Courtesy of Oskeim Sports

The players have a renewed sense of purpose with bowl eligibility only two wins away, and the Mean Green are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games, 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a loss, 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games versus .501 or greater opposition and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Louisiana Tech is playing its best football of the season, but the Bulldogs are due for a letdown after their 61-16 win over hapless Rice last week.

Indeed, Louisiana Tech is a money-burning 4-14 ATS on the road after covering the spread as a double-digit favorite.  Moreover, the Bulldogs could easily overlook the vastly-improved Mean Green who they have comfortably defeated 42-21 and 56-13 in the previous two meetings.  Let’s also note that Louisiana Tech is allowing 34.0 points and 463 total yards per game at 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.

Finally, my math model favors the Bulldogs by less than two touchdowns so we are getting excellent line value with the Homecoming underdog.

With North Texas standing at 10-5-1 ATS as an underdog and 12-5-1 ATS as a home underdog of more than seven points, grab the inflated number with the Mean Green as Oskeim Sports’ Free College Football Pick for Saturday, November 2.

Free College Football Saturday Pick is on the host North Texas +20.5 points.

 

 

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