Free NFL Pick: Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams

Who: Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams
Where: Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, MO
When: Sunday, October 25, 1:00 pm ET
Odds: Rams -6.5, Total 41.5

 

It’s an AFC versus NFC clash, as the 2-4 Browns visit the 2-3 Rams.  The Rams are rested, having had their bye last week.  St. Louis is all about running the ball with rookie RB Todd Gurley.  They should find plenty of success on the ground against a Browns run defense that ranks dead-last in the league, allowing 150 rushing yards per game on five yards per carry.  But the Rams offense ranks among the league’s worst in redzone touchdown percentage.

 

The Browns offense is at its best when they’re airing it out, but they figure to struggle here.  The Rams are tied for first in the league in passing touchdowns allowed (five).  The Rams are also tied for third in the NFL with 19 sacks despite having had a week off.  The Browns offense also owns one of the worst redzone touchdown percentages in the league, while the Rams defense ranks #2 in the NFL in redzone touchdown percentage allowed.

 

The Rams should have success running the football with Gurley, and that keeps the clock moving.  Cleveland figures to have trouble in the passing game, which means they should have trouble scoring.  Both teams have trouble punching the ball across the goal line.  I’m not comfortable laying this many points with St. Louis, as Rams coach Jeff Fisher has been much better in his career in the underdog role.  But this sure looks like a low-scoring game to me.  I recommend a play UNDER the total.

 

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Free NFL Best Bet from Scott Spreitzer: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins

Direct from Las Vegas on WagerTalk TV host Scott Spreitzer (@scottwins) and special guest Chuck Edel (@chuckedel) look at Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins and Scott shares a free NFL best bet.

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