It’s an AFC vs NFC matchup on Sunday at 1:00 ET, as the Indianapolis Colts visit the Minnesota Vikings (-5, 46). The host Vikings are off a 25-16 road win in Jacksonville, while the visiting Colts are off a demoralizing 22-17 home loss to their division rivals from Houston. I am recommending a play on the OVER.
When you think “Vikings,” you naturally think “bet Under” (especially at home). This total is the highest total of any Vikings home game this season, and for good reason. The Vikings secondary is vulnerable without talented FS Harrison Smith. The Colts duo of QB Andrew Luck and WR T.Y. Hilton will take advantage.
The Colts’ defense is very subpar, to say the least. They rank 27th in QB Rating allowed (97.2), and 26th in yards per rush allowed (4.5). If ever there was a game in which this Vikings offense was going to put up some points, this one should be it.
I liken the Vikings to the Broncos in that both teams have a stellar defense, mediocre QB play, and little in the way of a running game. But that didn’t stop the Broncos from hanging 34 points on this Colts defense in Denver in Week 2.
With Minnesota home games being played indoors, we need not worry about wind or any adverse weather conditions. The Colts also play their home games in a dome, so the surface will be to their liking.
Counting the game against Jacksonville in London, the Over is a perfect 6-0 in Colts road games this season.
Only two of Minnesota’s six home games have gone Over this season, but: A) They averaged 25 points in their four home games against non-division opponents (only 16.5 in the two division games); and B) One of the two Overs just so happens to be the Vikings’ only other home game against an AFC opponent. The Vikings put up 31 points against a good Houston defense. That happens when teams are unfamiliar with each other. This game offers a similar situation.
Sunday NFL Non-Conference Free Pick is a play on OVER the TOTAL.
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