Super Bowl Win Probabilities: Poor Detroit Lions….


It’s not surprising that New England has the highest Super Bowl win probability.No Rob Gronkowski, no problem. The offense has been fine so far without the elite TE, and Belichick machine marches on.

However, it might be a surprise that Atlanta has the second highest Super Bowl probability over Dallas.

Matt Ryan and the Atlanta has the top ranked pass offense by my adjusted yards per attempt. The pass defense has been respectable at 8th.

Dallas has had a fantastic season, but Dak Prescott is still a rookie quarterback. Will he hold up now that defensive coordinators have a season’s worth of tape to study?

Still, the Cowboys have a 16.8% chance to win the Super Bowl, not far behind the Falcons at 19.1%.
New England, 31.5%
Atlanta, 19.1%
Dallas, 16.8%
Kansas City, 10.8%
Seattle, 7%
Pittsburgh, 6.6%
Green Bay, 2.7%
New York Giants, 1.5%
Oakland, 1.5%
Houston, 1.2%
Miami, 0.8%
Detroit, 0.5%

Poor Lions.


The Details

These win probabilities start with my member rankings that combine data from a number of different sources.

The rankings imply a win probability for each team in each game, and these numbers provide the parameters to simulate the playoffs.

Each simulation accounts for the shifting match ups based on seed (e.g. New England will play the lowest seed after this Wild Card Weekend) and neutral site of the Super Bowl.)

Current Super Bowl Odds from Las Vegas:


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