Rose Bowl Betting Preview: Alabama vs Notre Dame

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction

The Alabama Crimson Tide is ranked No 1 in the nation and are installed as 19.5-point favorites in the College Football Playoff semifinal game set to bet played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Alabama is the largest favorite ever in any CFP game and have been the favorite in three of the four CFP games where there was a double-digit favorite.

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Event: (331) Notre Dame Fighting Irish +19.5 vs (332) Alabama Crimson Tide (o/u 65.5)
Date/Time: Friday, January 1 at 4:00 p.m. EDT
Recommended Play: Alabama -19.5

Double-Digit Favorites in the CFP

Double-Digit favorites have earned a 4-0 SU record and 3-1 ATS record with Alabama failing to cover the spread as 13.5-point favorites in their 2018 CFP semifinal 45-34 win over the Oklahoma Sooners. Last year’s semifinal game saw the LSU Tigers destroy the Oklahoma Sooners 63-28 and easily covered as 13.5-point favorites.

Ohio State has been a perennial contender for the National Championship last winning in 2014, but have been largely over-shadowed by Clemson (2016, 2018) and Alabama (2017,2019), who have won two Championship each. Notre Dame will be making their first appearance in the CFP. The last time Notre Dame won a National Championship was in 1988 under legendary head coach Lou Holtz and Oklahoma State standout running back won the Heisman Trophy. For Notre Dame not have won a National Championship since 1988 is almost unimaginable, but it definitely serves as highly-motivating speech material for head coach Brian Kelly. With a win, Kelly would become the All-Time leader in Notre Dame history with five bowl wins.

Does Notre Dame Have a Shot?

Currently, Notre Dame is a 19.5-point underdog and that alone makes it a nearly impossible to imagine for a second that they could upset the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide, who have put together one of the best-ever seasons in college football history. However, there have been many 19 and more-point underdogs, who have earned upset wins in the Power-5 conferences. In fact, since 1980, there have been 74 teams installed as 19 or more-point underdogs that won the game outright. The last game where this occurred was a few weeks ago when 23.5-point and +900 money line LSU defeated the Florida Gators on the road. I stated on a live YouTube show to bet LSU to win and will be a game I will never forget.

There have been at least one 19+ underdog Power-5 teams to win outright in each of the last 20 seasons. There were 4-0 games this season, so it does happen more than most believe to be the case. What works against Notre Dame is the fact that 73 of these 74 games occurred during the regular season. There is one conference championship game where 20.5-point underdog Texas defeated Nebraska 37-27 for the Big-12 Championship crown back on December 7, 1996.

A Profitable Betting System

Betting on favorites between 10 and 21 points that are facing an opponent, who was outrushed by 125 or more yards has earned a solid 167-93 ATS record good for 64% winning bets since 2015. The straight-up record of this betting has posted a 240-17 record and that is news that the Notre Dame players do not want to know.

The current betting line implies a 43-23 Alabama win. My machine learning model predicts an 85% probability that Alabama will score at least 35 points in this game. Alabama is an amazing 89-4 SU and 59-32-1 ATS when scoring 35 or more points in games played over the last 10 seasons. Notre Dame is a horrible 4-16 SU and 2-18 ATS when allowing 35 or more points in games played since 2011.

Alabama will destroy Notre Dame by at least 27 points. I am predicting a 47-20 final score.


Meet the Capper: John Ryan

John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. After all, he has been kicking around in this sports data space and the life sciences space for 25 years. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports. He can found on Twitter too @johnRyanSports1.


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