ACC Championship Betting Preview: Clemson vs Notre Dame

Clemson Tigers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction

Notre Dame will face a highly focused and motivated opponent looking to avenge an earlier season loss. Clemson lost to Notre Dame 47-40 in South Bend and failed to cover the spread as 5.5-point favorites. Heisman Trophy favorite, Trevor Lawrence, did not play in that game due to contracting COVID-19, but he will be playing in this Championship game.

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Event: (235) Clemson Tigers -10.5 vs (236) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (o/u 60)
Date/Time: Saturday, December 19 at 4:00 p.m. EDT
Recommended Play: Clemson -10.5

Clemson is favored by 10.5 points at most books with a few lowering their number to 10 points as huge numbers of bets are being made on Notre Dame. Of the 1,286 bets placed so far, 55% of those bets account for a whopping 86% of the money wagered on the game. This is a red flag reflecting an irrational betting behavior that supports a bet on Clemson. The betting flows will even out somewhat over the remainder of the week, but the percentages will remain supportive of betting Clemson.

Clemson Passing Attack Cannot be Stopped

In previous seasons, Clemson had a standout number one receiver, like Tee Higgins or Justyn Ross, who carried the ffense. This season, is a vastly different season for Lawrence, and his backup D.J. Uiagalelei.

Clemson has six receivers with at least 14 catches on the season. Senior Amari Rodgers leads the team with 61 catches for 845 yards, including six touchdowns. He is the primary slot receiver where Lawrence gets the ball to him quickly, where he can catch the ball in space and force the first tackler to miss. He has two 100+ receiving games and five games with at last five catches against ACC foes.

Clemson running back Travis Etienne and wide receiver Cornell Powell are second on the team with 41 grabs. Etienne has gained 512 receiving yards for a 12.5 yards-per-catch average, including two touchdowns. Powell has gained 684 yards for a 16.7 yards-per-catch average, including five touchdowns. Braden Galloway has 22 catches for 316 yards for 14.4 YPC and two touchdowns. Frank Lason, Jr, E.J. Williams, and Davis Allen round out this remarkably deep and talented group of ball catchers that will be a nightmare for the Notre Dame defense to defend.

Game Status for Jamie Skalski

Clemson Senior and Mike linebacker Jamie Skalski injured his groin badly enough to require surgery in the beginning of the season. He played the opening series against Virginia Tech and was held out the remainder of the game for precautionary reasons. Clemson’s head coach stated in his post-game press conference that he was 90% certain Skalski would be on the field, but at only at 65% full strength. That press conference was 15 days ago and even at 80% of full strength Skalski, who is the leader of the defense, is better than most other linebackers in the nation.

Facts to Learn from the Betting Line

The betting line of Clemson favored by 10.5 points, and a 60.5 point total implies a Clemson 35-25 win. The 28 and 31-point scoring levels are pivot points for many college football teams. Clemson is 34-1 straight-(SU) and 24-11 ATS for 69% winning bets when they have scored 28 or more points since 2018. Clemson is a perfect 5-0 ATS covering the spread by an average of 11.3 points when playing at a neutral site since 2018.

Notre Dame has allowed 28 or more points in just four games over the last three seasons, but two of those games were against Clemson. They allowed 40 points in their 47-40 win over Clemson in Week 10 of this season and then allowed 30 points in a 30-3 CFP playoff loss, December 29, 2018.

Notre Dame is a money-losing 15-33 ATS in games where they and their opponent score at least 28 points each in games played since 2011.

Notre Dame has an excellent rushing defense that ranks 7th in the nation, allowing 99.7 yards-per-game. However, head coach Swinney is 26-10 ATS when facing an opponent whose defense allows 120 or fewer rushing yards.

Clemson avenges their early-season loss and wins big.


Meet the Capper: John Ryan

John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. After all, he has been kicking around in this sports data space and the life sciences space for 25 years. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports. He can found on Twitter too @johnRyanSports1.


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