MAC Football Betting Preview: Buffalo at Bowling Green

Buffalo Bulls vs Bowling Green Falcons Preview

The Buffalo Bulls will take to the road and face the Bowling Green Falcons in MACtion set to start tonight at 7:00 PM EST and televised on CBSSN. The game is a monumental mismatch on both sides of the ball, with my power ratings revealing Buffalo as a 45-point favorite. I cannot remember the last time I ever bet on a 30-point favorite or was even interested in researching one. However, this is a substantial opportunity to lay the massive wood with confidence.

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Event: (303) Buffalo Bulls -31 at (304) Bowling Green Falcons (o/u 58)
Date/Time: Tuesday, November 17 at 7:00 p.m. EDT
Recommended Play: Buffalo -31

The MAC has the most diverse levels of talent of any conference in the NCAA. Buffalo is at the top while Akron and Bowling Green are at the bottom and the talent levels of this 10-team conference present many double-digit favorites in recent years. Let’s take a look at double-digit favorites filtered by site. MAC teams installed as double-digit favorites are 135-119-8 ATS for 53% winning bets since 2010. Double-digit road warriors are a stellar 57-22 ATS for 72% winning bets since 2010.

MAC double-digit road favorites are already 3-0 ATS covering by an average of 15.7 points in 2020. In 2019, they earned a 6-1 ATS record for 86% winning bets covering by an average of 4.8 points. In 2018, they went a losing 2-3 ATS, and 7-2 ATS in 2017. If a bettor had blindly bet all double-digit MAC road favorites since 2010, they would have earned a highly profitable 72-7 straight-up (SU) record and 57-22 ATS for 72% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 6.5 points. The ‘OVER’ bet also did well on its’ merit sporting a 44-33-2 record good for 57% winning bets since 2010.

Buffalo running back Jaret Patterson became the all-time program leader with 35 touchdowns and did it in only 28 games. He is the fastest in program history to gain 3,000 rushing yards and needs 119 rushing yards to move up to No-2 all-time.

MAC Football Preview


The machine learning models that I developed predict that Buffalo will gain 300 or more rushing yards score a minimum of 35 points AND/OR will hold Bowling Green to fewer than 14 points. In past games in which Buffalo gained 300 or more rushing yards and scored 35 or more points has led them to a highly profitable 9-0 SU record and an 8-1 ATS record good for 89% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 17 points since 2011. Buffalo has earned a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS record covering the spread by an average of 14 points when they have gained 300 or more rushing yards and held their opponent to fewer than 14 points in games played since 2010.


Meet the Capper: John Ryan

John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. After all, he has been kicking around in this sports data space and the life sciences space for 25 years. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports. He can found on Twitter too @johnRyanSports1.


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