Colorado State vs. Memphis Prediction, Pick and Odds – March 27, 2021

Pred. Score

Line

PR

GS Line

Avg. PR

Avg. OPR

SUR (H/A)

ATS (H/A)

O/U (H/A)

Pts. Diff. (H/A)

Avg. Line (H/A)

Memphis63-49-8131713-4 / 4-48-10 / 6-22-15 / 3-5+9.4 / +6.5-11 / -1
Colorado State68138.517182112-1 / 6-58-4 / 5-64-9 / 5-6+14.3 / +1.4-8 / -1
Notes to consider…No Picasso, that Memphis-Boise State NIT quarterfinal on Thursday in Denton, though no complaints from the Tigers as they advanced. (By the way, yes, U of Memphis did change its name from Memphis State in the 90s, and it’s almost against the law in the Bluff City to refer to the school by its former title, though Penny Hardaway has been granted dispensation for adding the old “State” to the uniforms as an ode to the long-ago glory era when he also starred.) But we suspect that Penny’s bunch needs to play a bit more disciplined than it did vs. the Broncos, when late-game sloppiness almost cost Memphis a win. This Mountain West rep from Fort Collins is a bit more menacing than Boise, driving hard thru the end of the regular season and narrowly missing the Dance. The Rams have created problems all season with their rugged 6-5 wing David Roddy (16.1 ppg), whose ability to score from the perimeter, then post-up smaller defenders, creates a hellish matchup which also tends to open the floor for slashing 6-foot soph G Isaiah Stevens (15.2 ppg), last year’s MW Newcomer of the Year who can stretch opposing defenses with his 42% shooting beyond the arc but also bedevil them with commando raids into the paint. While it looks like Niko Medved’s troops have an idea what they want to do on offense, that’s not always the case with Memphis, often reduced to forcing shots while threats such as 6-7 VPI transfer wing Landers Nolley II (just 14 for 46 from floor last four) go one-on-one to create their own looks. Fortunately for Hardaway, soph G Lester Quinones has been there to convert big buckets in the first two rounds, but there are reasons Memphis lost most of its close decisions this season. Those include turnovers, which at 16 pg ranks a poor 317 out of 340 and indicates the sloppiness to which we referred earlier; and FT shooting at a very subpar 62% which ranks even worse (335 out of 340). What Penny’s crew does well is exert effort on defense, and the Memphis length has discombobulated both Dayton and Boise thus far in the NIT. Which makes the “under” (13-4 last 17 Tiger games) at least as attractive a recommendation as the CSU side in Frisco.
College Basketball Pick: Play CSU-Memphis “Under” and CSU (check updated College Basketball Odds with WagerTalk Live Lines)

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Last 5 Games

PF/PA

Pts. Diff.

Avg. PR

Avg. OPR

Avg. Line

SUR (H/A)

ATS (H/A)

O/U (H/A)

Memphis

68-64+3.4121203-0 / 0-22-1 / 2-00-3 / 1-1

Colorado State

69-69+0.21717-13-0 / 0-22-0 / 0-20-3 / 1-1

Results

Date

Opponent

Line

Total

Score

Results

Date

Opponent

Line

Total

Score

Memphis

03-25-21Boise State-4.514359-56

Colorado State

03-25-21NC State+1.5145.565-61
03-20-21Dayton-5.5137.571-6003-19-21Buffalo-2153.575-73
03-13-21@ Houston U+713474-7603-12-21@ Utah State+4.5138.550-62
03-12-21Central Florida-713570-6203-11-21Fresno State-8.5136.572-62
03-07-21@ Houston U+10135.564-6703-05-21@ Nevada+1.5145.582-85

The NCAA Tournament is one of the most-bet events on the sports calendar. That influx of public money can create some interesting opportunities to “fade the public” during March Madness. WagerTalk handicapper Steve Merril offers his thoughts on a handful of Sweet 16 matchups where the money and ticket count are flowing to one side.

#NCAATournament | #MarchMadness | #CollegeBasketball

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