Premier League Free Play: Brighton vs Leeds

Brighton vs Leeds Betting Preview

Brighton is one of those teams that has deserved better in the Premier League this year. They currently are just above the relegation zone with a 2-8-8 record and -8 goal differential and they havenโ€™t won a game since November 21 at Aston Villa. However, if you look closer at their results, they only have five losses in their last 14 games as they have played to eight draws during that time. Those losses came against Tottenham, Southampton, Leicester, Arsenal and Man City just this past week, and only one of those teams has a negative xG differential. Thatโ€™s notable here because Leeds has a negative goal differential at -0.28.

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When looking at Leeds’ record in the table, they are nine points above Brighton with a 7-2-8 record but still have a -3 goal differential thanks to owning the second-worst defense in the league, conceding 33 goals thru 17 games. Of all 98 teams in the top-5 European leagues, Leeds allows the sixth-most xGA per game.

Now if we look closer at their results, of their seven wins, only one of them has come against teams with a positive goal differential while five of their wins have come against the five teams with the worst xG differential in the league in West Brom, Fulham, Newcastle, Sheffield and Burnley. And of course Brighton come in with a positive goal differential of +0.13.

Long story short, Brighton really only loses to the top teams in the league while Leeds only beat the worst teams in the league and according to xG, Brighton is the eighth-best team in the league while Leeds is No. 14.

I simply cannot trust Leeds defense here laying any goals and will gladly grab the number on Brighton.

TAKE BRIGHTON +0.5 – Line Parameter: 4% to +0.25, but pay up to -140 to get +0.5.


Meet the Capper: Nick Borrman

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional โ€˜footballโ€™ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Of course, you canโ€™t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.


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