Premier League Free Play: West Brom at Sheffield United

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WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Tuesday’s showdown at the bottom of the Premier League table between West Brom and Sheffield United. Both teams will be looking for much-needed three points as they fight against relegation.

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I like Sheffield United to get the win at home. They lost 1-0 at Manchester City this past week, but played very well and are coming off a road win at Manchester United and a home win over another bad team in Newcastle.

Even though West Brom is four points ahead of Sheffield in the table, they are not the better team. West Brom has an awful defense, allowing 50 goals already through 21 games, which is the worst out of Europe’s top five leagues. They are allowing 2.10 xGA per game leading to a -1.43 xG differential per game, which is the worst in the league by more than 2x the next closest team in Burnley at -0.71. Sheffield is third-worst in that category but nearly a full goal better at -0.55, and I just want to fade a defense as bad as West Brom’s almost any chance I get.

On top of all of that, I like the revenge angle here for Sheffield who lost 0-1 to West Brom back in November which was remarkable, considering Sheffield dominated that match and put up 3.37 xG, yet failed to score.

Momentum, revenge and numbers all point to Sheffield United in this game and that’s good enough for me.

TAKE SHEFFIELD UNITED TO WIN (ML or -0.5) – Line Parameter: 4% to -130, 3% to -150 or -0.75

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Meet the Capper: Nick Borrman

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Of course, you can’t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

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