Cole Hamels, SP, TEX: Hamels is expected to miss about 8 weeks with an oblique strain, which means he likely won’t be back until at least July. Things weren’t going very well for Hamels anyways, as his 3.03 ERA was quite deceiving. He has an awful 4.13 K/9 this season to go with a 7.5% SwStr%; in 11 previous seasons, his career lows were 7.76 and 11.5% respectively. And his .219 BABIP is not something that will usually hold up with a 36.0% Hard%. Don’t feel bad at all dropping Hamels, if you don’t have any DL slots available.
Aaron Judge, OF, NYY
After yet another homerun on Wednesday, Judge has blasted six dingers over the Yankees 6-game home stand, and now has 13 HR’s on the season, all in his last 20 games. Perhaps more surprising than the HR barrage (or at least as surprising) is that Judge’s BA has jumped to .330 this season after hitting .179 in 27 games with the Yankees last year. Judge has seen a huge improvement in his contact rate since last season, mostly due to a decrease in swinging at pitches outside the zone; his O-Swing% has dropped from 33.6% in 2016 to 23.6% so far this season. But even so, his current K% is 26.0% and we can’t pretend that that’s a low number. Yet it’s not like Judge’s BA is being carried by a ridiculous BABIP; in fact his .333 BABIP is very reasonable considering his 49.1% Hard%. His 54.2% HR/FB however is ridiculous, and no, it’s not sustainable. But with his high Hard%, we should expect a lot of his FB’s to go for HR’s, especially in Yankee Stadium. At home this season, Judge is hitting .408 with 10 HR’s in 49 AB’s. He should be in your lineup regardless, but it’s his home park that makes him an excellent bet for 40+ dingers and a solid BA to go with it.
Victor Martinez, DH, DET
Martinez has been a huge disappointment through the first month of the season, as he is hitting just .237 with 1 HR through his first 26 games. The peripheral stats, however, don’t show any problem at all. His 13.8% K% is still very good (although a bit high for his standards) and his Hard% would actually be a career high at 44.4%! Things look even more promising when you consider that his K% is only 7.1% over the past 16 games. Hitting the ball as hard as he is, you would think the.265 BABIP and 3.4% HR/FB have to go up. I know he’s old, but he doesn’t seem done.
Hector Santiago, SP, MIN
What do you make out of a pitcher who has a 2.78 ERA but a 5.24 xFIP? Maybe I’m biased, but I have to think regression is coming. The 6.31 K/9 is mediocre, as is the 2.78 BB/9. The high FB% may help keep his BABIP down, but it’s also conducive for balls being hit out of the park (after all, Santiago has allowed 62 HR’s over the past two seasons). His Hard% isn’t good either at 36.0%. Expect an ERA in the high 3.00’s at best.
Yonder Alonso, 1B, OAK
Alonso stayed hot on Wednesday, homering for the 2nd straight game, giving him 6 HR’s on the season. He has been especially good against RHP’s this season, hitting .317 with a .955 OPS against them entering Wednesday’s game. On Thursday, he’ll face the Twins and RHP Kyle Gibson, who has been awful against everybody but has already allowed 4 HR’s against LH-hitters this season. Alonzo is surprisingly cheap for Thursday’s matchup. DraftKings Value Play Salary $3,000.
Written by Menachem Greenfeld: a Mathematics major at the University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC) and he has always had a passion for sports and statistics.
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