Oklahoma is 9-1 straight up, 6-4 against the spread in its last 10 games against Group of 5 programs. However, at the moment Florida Atlantic isn’t exactly your average Group of 5 outfit. Which way do we go with our free college football pick on Week 1’s Sooners-Owls tussle in Norman?
The early Week 1 college football betting odds opened Oklahoma at -21 over FAU, and that number was holding steady in the early betting.
Florida Atlantic returns 15 starters this year from a team that finished 11-3 last season (10-3-1 ATS). The Owls started 1-3 last year but won their last 10 in a row, many in blow-out fashion, including a bowl romp over Akron. Only five starters are back on an offense that averaged 498 YPG last year, following the loss of their starting QB and three along the offensive line. But they do return RB Devin Singletary (1,900 yards last year, 32 TD). And 10 starters are back on a defense that, while it gave up 390 YPG last year, a decent portion of that came in garbage times, while protecting leads.
Oklahoma, meanwhile, returns 12 starters from a team that went 12-2 last year (9-5 ATS) and made the CFP. The Sooners suffered an early-season loss to Iowa State last year, then won eight straight, including the Big 12 championship game over TCU. But they let a 31-14 lead in the Rose Bowl slip away and lost to Georgia 54-48 in double-overtime. Six starters are back on an offense that averaged a whopping 580 YPG last year, including 1,000-yard rusher Rodney Anderson, 1,000-yard receiver Marquise Brown and three along the offensive line. But they must replace Heisman-winning QB Baker Mayfield. And six starters are back on a defense that allowed 395 YPG last year, although they must replace four of last year’s top six tacklers.
This is the first-ever meeting between these two programs.
Free Week 1 College Football Pick
Oklahoma went 5-1 ATS last year at home, covering spreads of 43, 34, 20 and 22 points, but we’re dubious as to their ability to do something similar this year. The Sooners will probably still win this game, but the spread is inflated. Also, FAU can run the ball and play a little defense. We’ll take the points with the Owls.
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