2016 MLB Regular Season Home Run Title Futures

The SuperBook of Las Vegas, Westgate, has updated their 2016 Regular Season Major League Baseball Home Run Title futures and this year’s derby winner, Giancarlo Stanton,  will have his second-half performance closely watched due to the history of negative regression from the Mid-Summer HR Derby winners.

Stanton was the oddsmaker’s favorite to win this year’s All-Star Derby earlier this week at PETCO Park and his history of being a “streaky hitter” is a concern for investors looking to jump on his 21-to-1 odds to end the season with the most National League home runs.  In the last 10-plus seasons alone there have been a number of second-half collapses by Home Run Derby winners. There was Philadelphia’s Bobby Abreu in 2005 and Chicago White Sox’ Todd Frazier last season, in 2015, and home run derby participants Nelson Cruz and Adrian Gonzalez have publicly stated they believe that the All-Star Home Run Derby contest can result in a hitter altering their regular season swing after the event.

Are the unofficial studies and the hitter peripherals of the “Home Run Derby Effect” fact or fiction?

Giancarlo Stanton set an All-Star record for Derby home runs at Petco on Monday night. The Marlins slugger hit 20 homers in the final round to best defending champion Frazier. Stanton hit a record 61, shattering the single-night mark of 41 by Bobby Abreu in 2005. The three-time Miami All-Star was not a part of the National League roster for Tuesday night’s game 4-2 loss to the American League and he enters the post-All-Star portion of the 2016 schedule hitting a mere.233 with a total of 20 homers.

Mark Trumbo of the Baltimore Orioles leads all of baseball with 28 home runs and tops the Westgate Chart at 5-to-2 as the player most likely to win the Home Run title in 2016. The Pale Sox’ Frazier (10-to-1) and Cubs’ Kris Bryant (5-to-1) both checked in at the All-Star break with  25 dingers followed by a large group that includes Jays’ Edwin Encarnacion (12-to-1), Mariners’ Cruz (12-to-1), Toronto’s Josh Donaldson (15-to-1), Rockies Nolan Arenado (8-to-1) and Reds’ Adam Duvall (no individual odds at Westgate to win the Derby but falls into the Field container at 12-to-1), whom all have a total of 23 homers.

Can Major League Baseball’s All-time Home Run leader, Barry Bonds who happens to be the Miami sluggers new hitting coach, assist Stanton in representing the title of baseball’s highest-paid player at  $325 million over a lucky 13-year deal?

In most cases the All-Star Derby participants that take part in more than one round of the Mid-Season Classic contest that scuffle in the second stanza of the season are those that have, for the most part, outperformed their peripherals pre-All-Star break.  Stanton’s pedestrian .233 batting average and the fact he is 8 homers behind home run leader Trumbo makes him a valued 12-to-1 candidate to close the season as baseball’s home run leader.

The SuperBook, Westgate of Las Vegas, has updated their MLB Propositions Chart. The following odds for the 2016 MLB Regular Season Home Run Title are as follows:

 

MLB HR 2016

 

 

 

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