MLB Season Wins Matchups

Most baseball fans have grown to love Interleague Play. You’ve got the Subway Series between the Mets and Yankees in New York, the Freeway Series between the Dodgers and Angels in Los Angeles, and the “1985 Was the Greatest World Series Ever” clash between St. Louis and Kansas City. Now, thanks to the innovations of gambling, you can bet against your cross-town rival all season long, not just during your your Interleague series. CG Technology has released their MLB season wins matchups for the upcoming year. Any lines jump out to you?

Couple Quick Notes

  • CG Technology’s latest MLB win totals have San Francisco two games better than Houston (89 wins vs. 87). However, when the lines were first released in February, the Giants were listed at 3.5 games better. There may be some value in laying the 1.5 in this matchup, when you consider what the original perception of their values were before the public got their hands on the lines.
  • Opening lines had a six game difference between the Angels (81.5 wins) and the Dodgers (87.5 wins), but that has shot up to 8.5 thanks to the Dodgers rising to 89.5 and the Angels dropping half a game to 81. Is there value on the Angels at +6.5 (+135) when you consider the original difference between the two teams was only six games? Seems like there is a pretty good reason the book hasn’t jumped to move the line to reflect the updated win totals expectancy.
  • FanGraphs is a great tool for analyzing stats and looking at projections. Their models have the Dodgers 11 games better than the Angels (only 6.5 in CG’s matchup), the Cardinals eight games better than the Royals (only 1.5 in CG’s matchup) and the Mets six games better than the Yankees (only 3.5 in CG’s matchup).

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