Prez’ Mon Nite MLB Free Pick: Diamondbacks at Padres

Arizona is still playing big games while San Diego players are roughing the remainder of the regular season slate and these two National League West clubs are scheduled for a 10:10 p.m. ET first pitch on Petco Park field tonight.

The Diamondbacks (-140, 8.5) have 12 games remaining in the 2017 season slate and enter tonight’s event with a commanding 5-game lead as the top wild-card spot in the National League. Arizona sends Patrick Corbin (14-12, 4.06 ERA) to the Petco hill to oppose the Padres‘ righty Luis Perdomo (7-10, 4.61).

 

Corbin couldn’t command his pitches in his last outing against the Padres allowing eight runs and 11 hits over 4 1/3 innings of work. The Arizona southpaw doesn’t sport effective surface stats (5-6 with a 4.29 ERA in 15 career appearances) against the San Diego crew but the numbers, including his last start, should be considered semi-aberrations. Corbin is 6-1 with a 2.12 ERA in his last seven starts and that includes his poor showing against the Padres at Chase Field when he allowed the eight earned runs. Corbin was up in the strike zone in that affair and didn’t induce the typical number of ground balls nor strike outs in the loss to the Padres.

Corbin has an excellent 3.14 ERA and a 106:29 K:BB ratio across his last 103.1 innings pitched and his performance for the playoff bound D-backs has been nothing short of stellar, especially since the All-Star break in which he is 8-3 overall.

Perdomo didn’t fare well against the ‘Backs on September 10th when Arizona hit three solo home runs in six innings solidifying the San Diego right-handers recent fly-ball heavy arsenal. Perdomo has won only once in six outings completing at least six innings in each of those starts but in each of his last 10 turns. When the Padres starter is effective he is recording ground ball outs. Recently the right-hander has not had the sinking movement on his fastball nor has he been able to command the lower portion of the strike zone.

Even when Perdomo was executing an elite ground ball rate his BABIP was highly elevated at .343 and his inability to work from the stretch (67.7% LOB) has led to a rise in his FIP from 4.32 to a current 5.10.

The young righty appears to be hitting a wall after throwing close to 150 innings this season. He doesn’t miss enough bats (108 K’s across 146 IP) and his home run to fly ball ratio has climbed nearly 5 percent over his last six outings.

Prez’ Monday Night MLB Free Pick to Click is a play on the Arizona Diamondbacks (Corbin) -140.

 

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