PGA Tour Betting Predictions
The PGA Tour stays in California this week for the Genesis Invitational from Riviera Country Club. The tournament will have a star-studded field with several of the top players in attendance, with the exception of the tournament’s host: Tiger Woods. Riviera is one of the most-difficult courses on the PGA Tour for hitting greens in regulation, so accuracy from the fairways will be a key component to having success this week. At the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, Dustin Johnson has opened as the +600 favorite, followed by Jon Rahm (+1200) and Rory McIlroy (+1200).
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Genesis Invitational Outright Winner
From Nick Borrman: Xander Schauffele is sitting fifth or sixth on the odds board this week, and the main reason I want to take him is because I want a chance to win on Sunday, and this guy gives you that opportunity every single week. While he is actually winless in over a year (which is hard to believe), Schauffele has been the most consistent player on Tour, minus only Dustin Johnson.
In seven starts this season, Schauffele’s worst finish has been a T17, which he has done twice. His other five events were all top-5 finishes, including three runner-ups. He was so close in his last start two weeks ago at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, but could only muster a final round 71 and lost to Koepka by a shot who fired a 65 on Sunday.
Going back to the 2019 season, in his last 27 starts, Xander has finished outside the top-25 just two times with 14 top-10’s. He finished No. 3 on Tour in 2020 in total strokes gained with the fifth-best scoring average. This season, he is slightly better at No. 2 in total strokes gained with the fourth-best scoring average.
Xander Schauffele will win very soon and this has been his best price in his last several starts, so I’m jumping on this one and we should at least have a chance on Sunday afternoon. He is also worthy of a top-10 play for a heavier investment at a current +135 price.
For daily fantasy players, of the heavyweights, Xander is definitely the best bargain at just $9,900 at DraftKings and $11,500 at FanDuel.
Genesis Invitational H2H Matchups
From Andy Lang: I have my eye on a head-to-head matchup between Carlos Ortiz and Matthew Wolff. Riviera is one of the most-difficult courses on the PGA Tour for hitting greens in regulation. In fact, it had the worst greens-in-regulation percentage on Tour in 2018. Wolff is currently No. 200 in driving accuracy and No. 136 in greens in regulation, which is not a good recipe for success this week. In the three tournaments that these guys have played together this year, Ortiz had a better head-to-head finish versus Wolff in all three.
From Nick Borrman: I am looking at the exact same matchup. First let me be clear, I am high on Wolff in the long term as I think he has the skillset to have a great career on the PGA Tour. That being said, I don’t like his current form and golf is such a momentum sport.
Wolff was all the rage coming off the US Open back in September finishing solo 2nd and then backing that up with another runner-up finish at the Shriners in his next start. However since then, his form has fallen off big time. He finished 73rd in a field of 77 at the CJ Cup then T50 at the ZoZo championship, which are two events without cuts. He missed the cut at the Masters, withdrew at the Farmers after an opening round 78, and his best finish since Shriners came in his last start in Phoenix finishing T36.
What worries me the most is that the best part of his game is off the tee, and he has lost over 8.50 strokes off the tee in his last five starts. On top of that, Riviera is a classic design with small greens and very tricky complexes that requires a strong short game which is Wolff’s weakest part of his game.
Carlos Ortiz on the other hand has been quietly consistent. He has made eight-straight cuts and going back to his win in Houston and he has four top-15 finishes in his last six starts. Take Carlos Ortiz over Matthew Wolff.
2021 Genesis Invitational Odds
Courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook:
Dustin Johnson – 6/1
Jon Rahm – 12/1
Rory McIlroy – 12/1
Justin Thomas – 14/1
Xander Schauffele – 14/1
Patrick Cantlay – 14/1
Bryson DeChambeau – 16/1
Brooks Koepka – 25/1
Tony Finau – 25/1
Daniel Berger – 30/1
Viktor Hovland – 30/1
Collin Morikawa – 35/1
Adam Scott – 35/1
Jordan Spieth – 35/1
Hideki Matsuyama – 40/1
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