PGA Tour Betting Predictions
Who’s ready for the island green?! The PGA Tour heads to the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass this week for The PLAYERS Championship. At the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, Dustin Johnson has opened as the +1200 favorite, followed by last week’s winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Bryson DeChambeau, at +1400.
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PLAYERS Championship Outright Winner
From Nick Borrman: I’m looking at Joaquin Niemann who has been in the 40-1 range in prior tournaments, but is available at 75-1 this week at FanDuel. Niemann has made the cut in all ten starts this year with seven top-25’s and two runner-up finishes. He is No. 9 on Tour in driving distance which really isn’t that important at this Pete Dye design, but it doesn’t hurt. He is also 13th in greens in regulation, which is very important. He is No. 11 in strokes gained tee-to-green, and has the fourth-best scoring average on Tour this year.
Niemann is a steal for DFS players that need guys to make the weekend, available for $7,700 at DraftKings and $9,800 at FanDuel. TAKE JOAQUIN NIEMANN +7500
From Andy Lang: I like Tommy Fleetwood this week. He’s frustrating to bet on a lot of the time, but he likes this place. He’s got two top-7 finishes the last two times he’s played here, and a sneaky 10th place finish last week.
I also like Cameron Smith after taking a week off following his collapse two weeks ago. He does not have good history at this tournament, but he’s much more mature now and so is his game. He’s finished 4th and 11th in his last two tournaments. I like him and his mullet this week.
Finally, I like the way Lanto Griffin is playing right now. He has three-straight top-26 finishes here. He’s a great top-30 or top-40 play, as well as a great daily fantasy play who should outperform his price.
I am looking to fade Harris English this week. He has six-straight missed cuts at this tournament, and he hasn’t looked the same since his win early in the season. Since that victory, he hasn’t finished in the top-25 of any tournament and has missed the cut twice.
I am also looking to shy away from Bryson Dechambeau. He won’t be able to over-power this course like he did last week, and his win was more because of some long putting success, which I don’t see as replicable. We already saw a video of him messing around with crazy trick shots on the practice tees. I don’t trust the focus to repeat his performance from last week.
Finally, I’ll be looking to fade Marc Leishman. He’s gotten worse each of the last three weeks after missing the cut last week. In his last four appearances at the PLAYERS Campionship, Leishman has failed to finish in the top-60.
PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP H2H Matchups
From Andy Lang: I am looking at Abraham Ancer over Harris English for many of the reasons I listed above. English has missed six cuts in a row at this tournament, while Ancer finished 12th here in 2019. In the two tournaments that they’ve played together in 2021, Ancer beat English in both.
From Nick Borrman: I am looking at Max Homa +115 vs Sergio Garcia. It seems like people forgot about Homa already, but he is coming off a T7, a win, T22, and T10 over his last four starts. Nothing in his Tour rankings jumps off the charts to me other than 25th in scoring, but for a guy that is in as good of form as he is, it’s hard not to want to back him here.
Garcia is a past champion here and he already has a win under his belt this season at the Sanderson Farms Championship back in October. But he hasn’t done much since with just one top-20 finish in seven starts since. He is still a great ball striker, but his overall strokes gained numbers have slowing been falling over the years:
2014 – 2nd in total strokes gained
2015 – 16th
2016 – 25th
2017 – 19th
2018 – Didn’t play enough rounds to qualify
2019 – 37th
2020 – 42nd
2021 – 67th
Sergio is still good enough to put together solid weeks, but not on the regular anymore and his current form isn’t getting me exciting to back him this week. TAKE MAX HOMA OVER SERGIO GARCIA
2021 PLAYERS Championship Odds
Courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook:
Dustin Johnson – 12/1
Bryson DeChambeau – 14/1
Rory McIlroy – 16/1
Jon Rahm – 16/1
Justin Thomas – 20/1
Xander Schauffele – 20/1
Paul Cantlay – 20/1
Collin Morikawa – 20/1
Viktor Hovland – 25/1
Webb Simpson – 25/1
Tony Finau – 30/1
Jordan Spieth – 30/1
Tyrell Hatton – 40/1
Patrick Reed – 40/1
Daniel Berger – 40/1
Hideki Matsuyama – 40/1
Tommy Fleetwood – 50/1
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