AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview

PGA Tour Betting Predictions

The annual tradition of watching Bill Murray and Ray Romano hack their way around Pebble Beach will have to wait a year. Unfortunately, there will be no spectators or celebrities involved in this year’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but some of the world’s best golfers will be in attendance. At the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, Patrick Cantlay has opened as the 8-to-1 favorite, followed by Daniel Berger (14/1), Paul Casey (18/1) and Will Zalatoris (18/1).

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Outright Winner

From Nick Borrman: Once again I’m going to target young Will Zalatoris. Like I said a few weeks ago, it’s only a matter of time before this young prodigy wins and with a rather weak field this week, now is as good of a time as any. In eight starts this year, Zalatoris has missed just one cut while finishing top-10 in half of those starts. In fact, he has only finished outside the top-20 once time in the seven events he made the weekend.

Zalatoris ranks 12th on Tour in driving distance which isn’t going to help him much here as Pebble does not play to lengthy hitters, but that’s okay because Zalatoris also ranked No. 4 in strokes gained approach, No. 4 in strokes gained tee-to-green and No. 6 in total strokes gained to go along with the sixth-best scoring average. He had another strong showing last week in Phoenix but couldn’t get anything going on Sunday yet still finished T17.

Another player worthy of a look and is not getting any respect from oddsmakers is Peter Malnati at 100-to-1 to win and +650 for a top-10 finish. Malnati has two top-15 finishes in his last three starts and had back-to-back top-5 finishes in the fall. He has the 19th-best scoring average on Tour and ranks No. 4 in strokes gained putting. He can be dangerous any week because of his putter and I really like his price this week in a light field.

For DFS players, Zalatoris is a must at $9,900 at Draftkings and $11,200 at Fanduel as he will be in contention on Sunday. Malnati is a steal at $7,800 at Draftkings and $9,400 at Fanduel. Make sure to work your rosters around those two this week.


AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am H2H Matchups

From Andy Lang: I am looking at Henrik Norlander (-130) over Brendan Steele. Steele has missed the cut in each of the last three times he has played this tournament. Meanwhile, Norlander has cracked the top-25 in each of his last three tournaments, finishing 22nd, 2nd, 12th.

From Nick Borrman: Another week and another fade of Rickie Fowler here. I went against him last week and he delivered by missing the cut. He has now missed the cut in three of his nine starts this season and has failed to crack the top-20 in any event. Going back to last season, he had another four missed cuts in eight starts after the restart in June, but he did at least have two top-20’s.

Statistically he can’t hit greens and he can’t putt. He is ranked No. 148 on Tour this season in strokes gained approach as he is No. 114 in greens in regulation, while he is even worse on the greens, ranking No. 199 on strokes gained putting. A recipe of not hitting greens and not making putts is not going to get your very far on the PGA Tour.

Compare that to long-hitting Cameron Davis who has made seven cuts in eight starts this year with two top-10’s. He ranks No. 14 on Tour in strokes gained off the tee, No. 34 tee-to-green and No. 42 total strokes gained. His only weakness is around the greens where he ranks No. 186.

After missing his first four cuts after the restart, he made his last four cuts with two top-20’s to finish last season giving him a run of 11 out of 12 cuts made and making it to the weekend could simply be enough to beat Fowler.

You can also find Fowler matched up against Kevin Streelman this week and considering Streelman has finished in the top-20 the last five years at Pebble and top-10 in the last three years, he is another good bet against a struggling Fowler.


2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds

Courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook:

Patrick Cantlay – 8/1
Daniel Berger – 14/1
Paul Casey – 18/1
Will Zalatoris – 18/1
Jordan Spieth – 20/1
Jason Day – 20/1
Francisco Molinari – 25/1
Si-Woo Kim – 30/1
Cam Davis – 35/1
Kevin Streelman – 35/1
Max Homa – 35/1
Sam Burns – 35/1
Rickie Fowler – 40/1
Cameron Tringale – 40/1
Phil Mickelson – 50/1

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview and PGA DFS Recommendations


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