The American Express Betting Preview

PGA Tour Betting Predictions

This field for The American Express is very top heavy with about 12-15 guys all favored in the under 35-1 range, then it falls off very quickly and you can get a ton of value on guys that have been playing very well over the last few months and haven’t quite broken through but are certainly due.

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From Nick Borrman: Doc Redman is a guy I like this week, no official PGA Tour win yet, but two top-5’s already this season in six starts. He will break through for a win sooner or later. He is available at 110-to-1 at Draftkings, which is insane or 12-to-1 for a top-10 finish. For daily fantasy players, he is available for just $7,500 also at DraftKings.

Denny McCarthy is another name who was up in the 40-to-1 range previously and is a crazy 200-to-1 at DraftKings right now, or 18-to-1 for a top-10 finish. He also has two top-5’s already this season and he led the PGA Tour in putting each of the last two seasons. As long as he putts like normal, all he has to do is just be average tee to green and he will be in the mix on Sunday. For daily fantasy he is even more of a steal at just $6,900.

The last guy I’ll throw out there is Adam Schenk. Schenk made 11-straight cuts to end last year and carry over into this season. He did miss the cut last week at the Sony Open but at 240-to-1, he is worthy of a couple bucks this week. I like him for a top-20 at +700 this week. For daily fantasy and the importance of making the cut, $6,700 is worthy of a roster spot.

My recommendation for this week is to take your normal 3% stake and split it up to 1% for each guy and then 80% on the Top 10 or Top 20 market and 20% on the Outright. If any one of them cashes, we will have a nice payday!

Adam Hadwin vs Aaron Wise

From Nick Borrman: I’m scratching my head as to why Wise is actually favored here and we can get even money on Hadwin. Hadwin did limp into the holiday break missing three straight cuts, but looking at a longer body of work, he was very solid since the PGA Tour restart in June. He had made 13 of 14 cuts in his starts before those three missed cuts to end the season which I’m not too worried about now as he is fully rested here for his first start of the season.

Compare that to Wise who was much more inconsistent since the restart. Wise missed the cut in more than half of the events he played in, 8 of 14 missed cuts although he did end with a bang finishing solo 2nd at Mayakoba in the last official event before the holiday break, but that was certainly an anomaly to his long term play.

Statistically, Wise surprisingly finished 3rd on Tour in 2020 in Greens in Regulation, yet finished 89th in Strokes Gained Approach, he best Strokes Gained statistical category. That just means although he was hitting greens, he wasn’t hitting them within a decent proximity to capitalize and add in his 171st ranking in putting, he was 3-putting much too often, ranking 193rd on Tour.

Hadwin was solid in many facets of his game ranking inside the Top 60 in Strokes Gained Approach, Around the Green, Tee to Green and Overall, while falling just outside of that at #66 SG Putting.

But the biggest reason I love Hadwin this week is his history at PGA West. He did not play here last year due to the birth of his child, but in the four years prior he finished T2, T3, 2nd and T6. There is no doubt he will be full of confidence coming in here and is a true horse for the course play this week.

TAKE ADAM HADWIN OVER AARON WISE

From Andy Lang: After two weeks in Hawaii, the PGA Tour returns to the mainland this week for the American Express from Stadium Course at PGA West. Professional handicapper Andy Lang has his eye on a head-to-head matchup between Chris Kirk and Mark Hubbard. In the last four tournaments that these two guys have played in together, Kirk has finished better than Hubbard all four times. Can he make it a fifth time?

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