PGA Tour Betting Predictions
Following the West Coast swing, the PGA Tour heads to Florida for the first time in 2021 for the WGC Workday Championship from Concession Golf Club. At the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, Dustin Johnson has opened as the +650 favorite, followed by Jon Rahm (+900), Rory McIlroy (+1600) and Xander Schauffele (+1600).
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WGC Workday Outright Winner
From Nick Borrman: For the outright market, you have to look at chalk in the WGC events. Since the beginning of 2016, there have been 18 WGC events and the longest winner was Kevin Kisner at 60-1. More telling though, is that 14 of the 18 winners have been at odds of 20-1 or less. So do not waste your time looking too far down the odds board this week, especially on an unknown course like Concession where generally the best players in the world are quicker at adapting to new tracks and there are no horses-for-courses guys in play this week.
Technically just outside that top-tier list at +2200 is Tyrell Hatton, although some books have him as low as +1800 so I’m counting him in that 20-1 or under range. Hatton has been playing some great golf. Over the last 16 months, he has four wins in 22 starts including winning the Abu Dhabi Championship in January. He finished in the top-10 in 12 of those 22 events, including finishing T6 in this event last year. Granted this event was played in Mexico, but it still supports the notion that this guy can play well and win in deep fields.
For a longshot leaderboard play this week, jump on Billy Horschel. The Florida Gator alum is playing in his home state. He is +750 for a top-10 or +1600 for a top-5. I expect him to be a guy making some noise during the upcoming Florida swing.
For DFS players, Hatton is $9,600 on DraftKings or $11,000 on FanDuel and you can get Horschel for $7,000 on DraftKings or $7,900 on FanDuel. Both are worthy of a roster spot this week. TAKE TYRRELL HATTON +2250
WGC Workday H2H Matchups
From Andy Lang: I have my eye on a head-to-head matchup between Hideki Matuyama and Adam Scott. Matsuyama continues to struggle with the putter, where he is currently No. 181 in strokes gained putting (Scott is No. 51). In the last four events that these two guys have played together, Scott has beaten Matsuyama in three of them. Hideki is not in great form right now, finishing 53rd, 42nd and missing the cut in his last three starts. Take Adam Scott over Hideki Matsuyama.
From Nick Borrman: I am also looking to fade Hideki Matsuyama, but I will do so with Marc Leishman. Leishman was a guy to fade after the restart last year. He missed five out of seven cuts including the first playoff event, but was able to make it all the way to the Tour Championship thanks to a strong first half of the year performance including a win. He then went on to finish dead last at the BMW with a final score of +30 and finished second-to-last at the Tour Championship. In four events so far this calendar year, he has three top 25 finishes with his worst finish coming last week, but still solid at T32.
Looking at Matsuyama, he hasn’t been playing terribly by any means, he is just not playing anywhere near where he is being priced. He did miss the cut last week at The Genesis to snap a run of eight straight cuts made, but his finishes have not been that impressive. In 2021 so far he has made the cut in four of five events, but he only has one top 25 finish and his next best was T41.
Matsuyama is known as an elite ball striker but a terrible putter. His ball striking was always good enough to carry him but that has fallen off so far this year as he ranks only 49th off the tee, 55th in approach and 54th around the green. His putting is still awful, ranking 181st on Tour.
Matsuyama is still being priced as a big favorite over Leishman at DraftKings and I just can’t see how that is justified. This is a great value number on current form of these two players, so grab Leishman at the big + number.
2021 WGC Workday Championship Odds
Courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook:
Dustin Johnson +650
Jon Rahm – 9/1
Rory McIlroy – 16/1
Xander Schauffele – 16/1
Justin Thomas – 18/1
Bryson DeChambeau – 18/1
Patrick Cantlay – 20/1
Tony Finau – 20/1
Tyrell Hatton – 20/1
Viktor Hovland – 20/1
Brooks Koepka – 25/1
Webb Simpson – 30/1
Patrick Reed – 30/1
Daniel Berger – 30/1
Sugjae Im – 35/1
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