Kentucky Derby Picks and Predictions Part II

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May 4, 2017 - 0 comments

Marco D’Angelo has been an owner and breeder of racehorses since 1986 with over one million dollars in purse earnings. Below you will find his personal notes with his Kentucky Derby Picks and Predictions (Part II):

143rd Kentucky Derby Preview: Longshots

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#11 Battle of Midway 30-1 – Battling history here as no horse since in 1882 won the Derby without racing at 2. I love the jockey here as Flavin Prat has taken the So Cal racing by storm but I don’t think this horse has the foundation to win this race look for better things from this horse later this summer.

#12 Sonneteer 50-1 – History says no here as he has yet to win a race and only 3 maidens have ever won the Derby with the last being 1933. Also with 10 career starts he is what he is. Look elsewhere.

#13 J Boys Echo 20-1 – This horse ran a huge race 2 back winning the Gotham and putting up a 102 Beyer figure. His previous best was 84 so the question is did he bounce last time out when he ran a 84 Beyer in a disappointing 4th place finish. If there is a fast pace up front and he avoids traffic problems he could be flying late. Consider on bottom end of exotics.

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#14 Classic Empire 4-1 – Is the Champ back? Winner of the Breeders Futility at 2 he looked like he would enter this year as the odds on favorite for the Derby but he has been a nut job at times. Horses can be their own worst enemy and he was in the Hopeful when he wheeled at the start throwing his rider. Then in the Holy Bull ran his worst race finishing a badly beaten 3rd as the odds on favorite. His training schedule had to be altered as it was discovered that he had a foot abscess that was the reason for the poor performance in the Holy Bull. His training schedule was messed up a second time with a back injury and Classic Empire twice refusing to train. With all the obstacles he faced Mark Casse did a tremendous job getting him ready for the Arkansas Derby but the question I have is did rushing to get him here take too much out of him. I will use in Exotics but see others with better chance of winning.

#15 McCraken 5-1 – McCraken has won at Churchill 3 times in his career and has only tasted defeat once in 5 career starts. McCraken had improved is Beyer figure in every race up until his last race when he finished 3rd in the Bluegrass. Some will say he was beaten by a maiden in that race and look at it as a negative but if you look deeper I believe that race was just a tightner for this race. Coming off his win in the Davis in which he posted a Beyer of 95 he exited that race with a slight ankle sprain. His trainer Ian Wilkes had planned to go to the Tampa Bay Derby next but since he had to back off for a few weeks he decided to wait and race in the Arkansas Derby having almost 2 months in between starts. McCracken was no way 100% for the Bluegrass and rather than go all out with him it looked like they just wanted to get a race in him to tighten him up for this race. I think McCracken is sitting on a Big Race and post #15 is perfect as he is first horse in the auxiliary gate meaning he and #14 Classic Empire have a little extra room leaving the gate. His style is perfect as he will be one of those horses in the first tier of stalkers waiting to get the jump on the deep closers. Appears to be Horse to beat.

#16 Tapwrit 20-1 – With his post position and not really a speed horse out of the gate he is going to have to make up a lot of ground in the Derby. He had won 3 of his last 4 prior to his poor performance last time out in the Bluegrass. I can’t back him off the last race.

#17 Irish War Cry 6-1 – He is only horse in race that has 2 100+ Beyer races on his resume. He has tactical speed to get away from the gate so leaving from post #17 not as big of deal as it would be for others. He has been looking good in the mornings and with just 5 career starts 4 of them wins we still haven’t seen his best yet. He’s a major player on Saturday.

#18 Gormley 15-1 – The positives are this horse is a California based horse and California Horses have won 4 of the last 5 Derby’s. He also has Victor Espinoza aboard who knows his way to the winners Circle on the 1st Sat of May. Now the negative although he won the Santa Anita Derby is was in a very slow time. He has to overcome post #18 with better speed inside of him. This will also be his first race at a track other than Del Mar or Santa Anita. Too many question marks for me to consider as a contender.

#19 Practical Joke 20-1 – Hard not to like a horse that’s 6 for 6 in the money and has improving Beyer numbers including a career best 92 last time out. Joel Rosario is aboard and is one of the best jocks in the country in my opinion. The horse the preferred running style as he is a stalker. The big concern here is Post #19 as he may be further back in this race than he has been and will be at the mercy of the pace and traffic. But if he gets a quick pace which I think he will Rosario knows how to cut out a trip. Chad Brown is one of the Top trainers in the game and made an equipment change leading up to Derby and by all accounts has looked better with the addition of small cup blinkers. He has looked more aggressive in his morning works. Will have him on some of my exotics.

#20 Patch 30-1 Has improved rapidly after stretching out from 6f to a mile and a mile 1/8th posting a win and a 2nd. With just 3 career starts he has the opportunity to make a big jump here as we clearly haven’t seen his best yet but the fact he didn’t race at 2 he is bucking history and getting post #20 doesn’t help either. Others present more value.

Kentucky Derby Picks and Predictions on horses #1 to #10

143rd Kentucky Derby Betting Preview: Contenders

Marco D'Angelo

Marco D'Angelo

Marco D’Angelo has been a professional sports handicapper and bettor since 1980. Marco moved to Las Vegas in 2008. During the 2010 Baseball Season Marco made handicapping history when he won a documented 25 Baseball Games in a row. What was even more impressive was the fact that he never laid more than -120 in any of the 25 plays. The 25 game winning streak, was documented by the Sports Monitor of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Marco is a 2 Time winner of Preferred Picks Wise Guy Football Contest.Marco's signature play is his College Football Game of the Year as Marco has gone 26-8 with this game over his 34 year career.

Marco has been featured as a guest handicapper on several radio shows as he has been on ESPN regional and national shows, Yahoo Sports Radio, Sports Overnight America, as well as appearing on shows covering regional teams in both College and Pro sports. Marco was co-host of a successful Las Vegas Show for several years. Marco is also the go to guy for Horse Racing information from media outlets.

Be sure to tune in to Marco's daily podcast "The Betting First Look Show" where Marco breaks down one game in detail for Free everyday. Follow Marco on twitter: @MarcoInVegas
Marco D'Angelo