Marco D’Angelo has been an owner and breeder of racehorses since 1986 with over one million dollars in purse earnings. Below you will find his personal notes with his Kentucky Derby Picks and Predictions (Part I):
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143rd Kentucky Derby Betting Preview: Contenders
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1 – Lookin At Lee 20-1– If you like Classic Empire go back and watch the Arkansas Derby and only focus on Lookin at Lee also came from dead last in Breeders Futility to finish 2nd to Classic Empire
#2 Thunder Snow 20-1 – History says no to Thunder Snow as horses that have won the UAE derby in Dubai are 0 for 12 in the Derby with the best finish being 5th
#3 Fast and Accurate 50-1 – Totally outclassed here with his Beyer numbers and he will be on the lead or just off it. At least the owners will hear his name at the start of the race. NO SHOT
#4 Untrapped 30-1 – Has the preferred running style as he will be one of the stalkers but I question if he can get the distance as he as flattened out in the end of his last few starts. He does have a win over this track as a 2 yr old
#5 Always Dreaming 5-1 – Hot horse winning 3 in a row and getting better as he had a career best 97Beyer last time out. Has full of him self in the morning workouts wanting to run off with rider. In Florida Derby win went last furlong in 12.53 indicating he can get the extra distance. Perfect running style will have near lead but most likely sitting just off the lead.
#6 State of Honor 30-1 – Always a bridesmaid never a bride as in 10 starts has just 1 win but 4 seconds. Most likely will be the early speed in the race. With 10 starts under his belt this horse has pretty peaked already and is what he is. A good horse not a great horse.
#7 Girvin 15-1 – with only 4 lifetime starts this horse has a license to make a big jump on Saturday. In 4 starts he has 3 wins and a 2nd and has the preferred running style for the Derby but the horse has been dealing with quarter crack on his foot and will be running in Z Bar shoes to help take the pressure off the foot. If the foot was 100% I would like him a lot but the foot has altered his training and having had to deal with quarter cracks on my own horses you never know to you get them in the race. I’ll use him on some tickets.
#8 Hence 15-1 – Is the Hot backside horse this week or the Steam Horse as he is catching everyone’s eye in the mornings. Made a giant jump in his last race winning the Sunland Derby with a Career High Beyer of 97. His Beyer has improved in every start but the jump from 81 to 97 might of taken too much out of him and may be the reason he hasn’t raced since March 26th as he was ripe to bounce in his next start. So on one hand the extra time would eliminate the bounce factor but creates a new problem in the last 96 years there have only been 5 horses win the Derby that did not have a prep race in April. Don’t think he can win it but should be used in your exotics.
#9 Irap 20-1 – This trainer, jockey, owner combination has won the Derby twice in recent years with I’ll Have Another and Nyquist but both of those horses were better accomplished coming into Derby than Irap who didn’t break his maiden till last time out which was his 8th career start. I see better in the field.
#10 Gunnevera 15-1 – He will be closing late and prior to his 3rd place finish in the Florida Derby he had put together 3 bang up efforts seeing his Beyers jump from 86 to 95 to 97. He drew the outside post in the Florida Derby and got away dead last and Gulfstream Park has been known for a speed favoring bias so finishing 3rd coming from the clouds really doesn’t look that bad. With JJ Castellano up you have what many believe to be the best jockey in the world riding. Can’t be ignored at a price.
143rd Kentucky Derby Preview and Predictions