La Liga Free Play: Sevilla at Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla Predictions

Atletico Madrid is leaps and bounds better than the rest of the league…if you simply just look at the standings that is. They are atop the table with a 12-2-1 record and sparkling 29:6 goal differential and currently lead second-place Real Madrid by one point, BUT with three games in hand, very impressive.

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However, I think their luck will run out sooner rather than later. They are the No. 1 over-performing team in the league when looking at their actual goals scored and allowed compared to their xG numbers. They are the No. 1 over-performing offensive team scoring 29 goals on 24.3 xG, scoring over 4.5 more goals than expected while defensively they are the No. 2 over-performer allowing only six goals this season but on 11.30 xGA. That is still the best in the league at just 0.75 xGA per game, but they should have allowed almost 5.5 more goals than they have.

Based on that, Atletico Madrid should actually be No. 5 in the table right now, just one point ahead of Sevilla who are underperforming offensively by three goals so far this season.

The head-to-head series between these teams is also very tight. The last four meetings have all ended in draws and over the last seven, Atletico has only one win. Also over the last seven, both teams have scored in each game while all seven have reached the current low total of just 2.0 goals with four finishing over the total along with three pushes, all 1-1 draws.

I see this game playing out very similarly. Sevilla +0.5 is my personal favorite way to attack this game, but over 2.0 goals, both teams to score and even a draw all look like good options at very good odds right now. But for my official free play, take Sevilla +0.5 over Atletico Madrid.

TAKE SEVILLA +0.5 – Line Parameter: 3% at +0.5 up to -140, 2% at +0.25

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Meet the Capper: Nick Borrman

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Of course, you can’t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

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