Now let’s take a look at a low-profile match that hides a very interesting statistic. The league is La Liga and Valencia are getting ready to host Espanyol on Sunday for the 24th Round. Valencia did a tremendous job in the Europa League on Thursday and pretty much sealed the qualificatio. They have been in really good form but the same can’t be said for Espanyol.
Date/Time: 2-17-2019, 10:15 EST
Spread: Espanyol +0.75
Total: 2.5 Goals
Valencia (6-4-13) played a really smart game and scored a goal in each half to beat Celtic by 2-0 on the road. They have been rough like this all season and it is no wonder that they have the 3rd fewest losses in the league. However, they also have the most draws (13) and the 4th fewest wins as a result. They are now sitting at the 8th spot of the league table with 31 points, four behind the top six spots. They have only lost once at home (3-1-8), oddly enough against Girona. Valencia actually held Barcelona and Atletico Madrid to draws here and even beat Manchester United in the Champions League. They are very strong at home and have scored at least three goals in three of their last four matches.
On the other hand, Espanyol (8-11-4) were taken by surprise in their home match against Rayo Vallecano last week. Their opponents took the lead but Espanyol scored a game winner at the 5th minute of stoppage time to win by 1-2. They have been struggling with consistency issues lately, as this win came after a five-match win-less streak (0-2-3). Espanyol do score goals on a consistent basis, failing to do so just once in their last ten. They are now sitting at the 12th spot of the league table with 28 points, five ahead of the relegation zone and three behind Valencia. However, they have been the worst team on the road so far in the season (1-7-4), conceding at least twice in eight of their last nine matches in all competitions.
Espanyol had an easy job in the 0-2 win at home earlier in the season. But it was Valencia who had won each of the previous five matches between the two. Valencia have been dominant as hosts against Espanyol, losing just once in the last 18 matches. Oddly enough, six of Valencia’s last eight home wins against Espanyol have come by the same 1-2 scoreline.
This is a different type of betting I like to do sometimes, so here I will bet on Valencia to win by 1-2 (+715) , or 0-3 (+1188) , or 1-3 (+1273) , or 2-3 (+2445). For example, I bet five dollars on each final score. If you play online and you have a Cash-out option, you can follow the game on live and decide on whether to keep all bets open, or cash some out.
I obviously believe that there will be at least three goals in this match, at least three by my calculations. For a more conservative approach you can just take the Over 2.5 Goals on this one.
La Liga Valencia vs Espanyol Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals (-106) / Valencia to win by 1-2 (+715)
Furthermore, check out my other Free Soccer Picks here: