I spent 3 years creating In-Game lines for NFL and NCAAF games for Pinnacle Sports (made, posted and adjusted lines all in the span of 3 minutes while taking bets of over $100,000 and ended year 2013 up over $1,000,000 in live football). During that time I learned a lot about market tendencies and where to find value.
Here are some simple tips to help you with your NFL Live bets during the rest of the playoffs.
- Bet immediately after a score – If you are going to bet, bet immediately after a score. The line is much less stable at that point, then after a punt. A score is a big change in the game state and often is the most uncertain time to post a line. After a score was the scariest time for me to post.
- Take a pregame underdog who is leading in the 2nd Half- The market wildly undervalues a pregame underdog who has a lead later in the game. This spot would come up over and over again and allow me to post a shaded line towards the favorite to overcharge the bettors, knowing that no one would take the dog. If Denver or Arizona has a lead in the 3rd or 4th quarter of the Conference Finals, feel confident betting on them.
- Beware of two possession spreads – In the playoffs teams will play ultra conservative with their Defense to close out games when they have a 2 score lead. Be wary of any spread -7.5 or higher. A lot of people got burned KC and Seattle’s late game heroics last week due to New England and Carolina going into a prevent and just looking to kill clock while giving up scores to close out the game. I’d steer away from a big spread in either of the conference final games.
Sports Betting Tips from Vegas Frank
Direct from Las Vegas, WagerTalk TV host Marco D’Angelo (@MarcoInVegas) talks with special guest Professional Gambler “Vegas Frank” about the tips and tricks on handicapping for a living in Las Vegas.