Michigan vs Florida State Predictions, Pick and Odds – March 27, 2021

Pred. Score

Line

PR

GS Line

Avg. PR

Avg. OPR

SUR (H/A)

ATS (H/A)

O/U (H/A)

Pts. Diff. (H/A)

Avg. Line (H/A)

Florida State70143.51071515-2 / 3-410-6 / 2-49-7 / 5-1+12.9 / -0.3-9 / -4
Michigan64-2.53-741016-2 / 6-211-7 / 6-28-10 / 2-6+13 / +5.5-11 / -5
*** Key Release: Florida State

We don’t think that it’s going too far out on a limb to pick against Michigan here in the Sweet 16 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. After all, Big 10 entries have performed about as well as the Apollo 13 service module thus far in the Dance, with only the Wolverines making it into the second weekend of the nine conference teams that had their names called on Selection Sunday. And lots of insiders think the Big Ten could have swallowed the big donut before we even got to the Sweet 16 had LSU maintained a bit more discipline (read frosh G Cam Thomas) down the stretch in the second round on Monday, when a succession of forced shots in the finale minutes paved the way for Juwan Howard’s team to advance. The Wolverines, however, still have a menacing look, especially with their skilled bigs 7-1 frosh Hunter Dickinson and 6-9 wing Franz Wagner proving tricky matchups. But we’re hardly convinced that Michigan gets big games again from sr. Gs Eli Brooks and Wake Forest transfer Chaundee Brown, who each scored 21 (about 25 more than their combined scoring averages) vs. Will Wade’s Tigers. Howard is still minus glue-guy G Isaiah Livers, and remember that Michigan had lost 3 of its last 5 entering the Dance. There are some observers who believe that Leonard Hamilton’s FSU might have a better chance than any team to challenge Gonzaga, mostly because of the Seminoles’ usual length and athleticism which shut down capable UNC-Greensboro and Colorado (who combined for only 53.5 ppg) across the first two rounds. Hamilton’s bunch might look as if it lacks a true go-to threat, but in truth any among the four FSU double-digit scorers is capable of getting the Noles a bucket when needed; vs. Colorado, it was 6-6 wing Anthony Polite scoring 22, while physical 6-8 PF Raiquan Gray had 17 in the Greensboro win. And even those buying into the over-hype of the Big Ten would have to admit that the Wolverines haven’t had to deal with this much length and athleticism on the defensive end this season. Withering pressure defense helps FSU gets one step closer to its first Final Four since Hugh Durham’s Noles turned the trick in 1972.

College Basketball Pick: Play FSU Key Release and FSU-Michigan “Under” (check updated College Basketball Odds with WagerTalk Live Lines)

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Last 5 Games

PF/PA

Pts. Diff.

Avg. PR

Avg. OPR

Avg. Line

SUR (H/A)

ATS (H/A)

O/U (H/A)

Florida State

70-67+3.2813-53-1 / 0-11-2 / 0-11-3 / 1-0

Michigan

76-70+6213-103-1 / 0-12-2 / 0-13-1 / 0-1

Results

Date

Opponent

Line

Total

Score

Results

Date

Opponent

Line

Total

Score

Florida State

03-22-21Colorado-1141.571-53

Michigan

03-22-21LSU-4147.586-78
03-20-21NC Greensboro-10.5143.564-5403-20-21Texas Southern-24.5141.582-66
03-13-21Georgia Tech-4.5145.575-8003-13-21Ohio State-5142.567-68
03-12-21North Carolina-3151.569-6603-12-21Maryland-8.513279-66
03-06-21@ Notre Dame-7152.573-8303-07-21@ Michigan State-813864-70

The NCAA Tournament is one of the most-bet events on the sports calendar. That influx of public money can create some interesting opportunities to “fade the public” during March Madness. WagerTalk handicapper Steve Merril offers his thoughts on a handful of Sweet 16 matchups where the money and ticket count are flowing to one side.

#NCAATournament | #MarchMadness | #CollegeBasketball

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