2020 MLB Season Win Total Preview: Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds Preview from Las Vegas

The Braves have won back-to-back NL East titles and the Dodgers have won seven NL West titles in a row. The National League has relied on the Central division to provide its surprises. The Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals have all taken turns atop the division in recent years. Is the door open for the Cincinnati Reds this season? The Reds’ season win total is 85 at both Caesars and Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

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BangTheBook’s Adam Burke joined the WagerTalk TV crew in Las Vegas last week to offer some of his thoughts on the upcoming season. Adam wrote a 250-page preview for the 2020 MLB season with betting thoughts on all 30 teams. Here are some of his highlights on the Reds:

  • The Reds finished with a 75-87 record in 2019, but only had a -10 run differential. Using Pythagorean wins, they should have been 80-82. Using FanGraphs’ BaseRuns formula, they should have been 84-78 last year. Using Baseball Prospectus’ 3rd Order Wins, they should have been 86-76.
  • The Reds played the most one-run games in baseball last year (57) and went 24-33 in them.
  • Key offseason additions: Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos. Plus, this will be the first full season with Trevor Bauer in the rotation.
  • The Reds’ pitching rotation saw a big jump in performance from 2018 to 2019. Cincinnati went from 24th in ERA to 8th; 21st in xFIP to 4th; and 24th in strikeout rate to 4th. Those numbers should continue to improve in 2020.
2020 MLB Win Totals – Cincinnati Reds

Host Minty Bets chats with WagerTalk handicapper Bryan Leonard and special guest Adam Burke about the rising Cincinnati Reds. All three are high on the Reds’ chances to make a run in the National League Central this season. Check it out!


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