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Philadelphia Phillies Preview from Las Vegas
Bounce-back year for Bryce? After a rough first year in Philadelphia (and watching his old team win the World Series), Bryce Harper looks to get back on track in the City of Brotherly Love. Philadelphia appears to have a pretty solid lineup on paper, but there are question marks surrounding the pitching staff. The Phillies’ season win total is 84 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and 85 at Caesars.
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Betting into the futures market in the NL East this season is going to be very difficult because there doesn’t appear to be much separation between the top four teams. At Caesars, the Braves, Mets, Nationals and Phillies all have a projected win total between 85-90 games. And even the Marlins aren’t projected to be that bad this season. These teams are likely going to beat up on one another for large chunks of the summer, which makes betting the “overs” a risky proposition in the season win total market.
BangTheBook’s Adam Burke joined the WagerTalk TV crew in Las Vegas last week to offer some of his thoughts on the upcoming season. Adam wrote a 250-page preview for the 2020 MLB season with betting thoughts on all 30 teams. Here are some of his highlights on the Phillies:
- The Phillies finished with a record of 81-81 in 2019, but the underlying metrics suggest that they should have been below .500 last year. Using FanGraphs’ BaseRuns formula, they should have been 75-87 last year. Using Baseball Prospectus’ 3rd Order Wins, they should have been 74-88.
- Key Additions: Didi Gregorius and Zack Wheeler with new manager Joe Girardi. The Gabe Kapler experiment in Philadelphia didn’t work, and some of his decisions undoubtedly cost the Phillies some wins last year. After a decade in the Bronx, Girardi knows how to handle this kind of market and should prove to be a sizable upgrade at manager.
- There’s Nola…and Wheeler…then who? It’s really hard to come up with some nice things to say about the back-half of the Phillies rotation and bullpen. Jake Arrieta allowed a career-high home run percentage last year. Vince Velasquez averages less than five innings per start. Zach Eflin’s strikeout rate dropped fairly significantly from 2018 to 2019.
- If you’re looking to place a wager on the Phillies’ season win total, focus on the first half of the schedule and try to visualize where you think they’ll be at the trade deadline (July 31). If the Phillies are still in contention, they have the resources to trade for pitching help and keep the over 84/85 wins in play. But if you think they’ll be out of the mix by then, Girardi will have to work with the hand he was dealt.
2020 MLB Win Totals – Philadelphia Phillies
Host Kelly Stewart chats with WagerTalk handicapper Marco D’Angelo and special guest Adam Burke about the Philadelphia Phillies. The guys have some differing opinions on how the Phillies’ 2020 season will pan out. Check it out!
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