Oakland Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays Free Pick
Who: (917) Oakland Athletics at (918) Toronto Blue Jays
Where: Rogers Centre, Toronto Ontario
When: Saturday, April 27, 3:07pm EST
List Anderson & Sanchez
Brett Anderson owns a solid 3.04 ERA on the season, but his 4.97 xFIP tells me he has been more lucky than good so far. It also tells me some regression is coming his way.
Same story for Aaron Sanchez. Sanchez owns a 2.77 ERA, but a 5.00 xFIP indicates to me some major regression is heading for Mr. Sanchez.
Having said that, I give the edge to Anderson and Oakland. Anderson has a mediocre 8.8% BB% or 3.38 BB/9, while Sanchez has produced a poor 14.6 BB% or 5.54 BB/9.
The offensive edge also goes to the Athletics. Active Toronto hitters own a combined career .289 average, .689 OPS, and .067 ISO against Anderson. Active Oakland batters own a combined career .300 average, .889 OPS, and .225 ISO versus Sanchez.
Adding to that edge is the fact Toronto owns a lowly 67 wRC+ against lefties this season, which is 33% below league average. Oakland has been nothing special against righties, but its 93 wRC+ is only 7% below league average.
Bullpen usage is not a factor. Over the last two days, Oakland’s bullpen has only thrown 1.2 innings, and Toronto’s pen only tossed 2 innings. So, everyone is available today.
Toronto has the better overall ERA and xFIP on the season, but I like to look at how the pens have fared recently. Over the last seven days, Toronto’s pen owns a 5.40 xFIP, which is second-worst in the league. Oakland’s pen comes in with the 13th ranked xFIP over the last week at 4.27.
It would seem the motivational edge should also go to Oakland. The A’s got swept at home by these Jays in a 3-game series last weekend, and got beat in walk-off fashion in Game 1 of this series last night.
It was just least season that Oakland swept a 4-game series in its lone trip to Toronto, including a 10-5 win over Sanchez.
OAKLAND PK looks like a solid value play at this price.
Dwayne cashed an easy winner in the NBA playoffs last night, as the Warriors destroyed the Clippers by 19. DB’s moneymaking NBA Totals System has revealed a high-percentage Over/Under play on tonight’s Spurs / Nuggets Game 7. Dwayne also includes his personal thoughts on why he agrees with his NBA Totals System’s projection.
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