2019 MLB Regular Season Pitcher Win Totals
The Major League Baseball offseason is officially in the books despite a large number of free agents not yet finding a landing spot for the 2019 campaign. Spring training is underway and the latest MLB news of Manny Machado’s massive new deal with the San Diego Padres has changed Vegas and Offshore sportsbooks, as well, fantasy baseball portal player rankings everywhere.
The aforementioned dozens of unsigned players like Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel and more mean that the MLB future charts are still likely to undergo more than one face lift in the coming weeks or even days.
The World’s Largest Race and Sportsbook, Westage of Las Vegas, updated MLB Pitching Futures are limited in scope. The SuperBook market offerings for pitching wins lists just 60 slated starters. The number pales in comparison to the 300-plus pitchers that will take the mound this season. With that said there are a handful of value investments on my 2019 radar.
National League Pitcher Over/Under Recommendations
Joey Lucchesi SP San Diego Padres
The addition of Manny Machado to the Padres everyday lineup only adds to the intrigue of San Diego’s young southpaw. The soft-throwing left-hander performed above expectations last spring. His successful March led to him earning an April San Diego rotation spot. Lucchesi followed his spring with one of the strongest April performances among any starting pitcher in baseball.
Pundits will argue that the young lefties season was nothing short of a Jekyll and Hyde campaign. On the surface his 2.78 ERA in April followed with, 4.20 May, 3.38 June, 5.21 July, 3.18 August and 6.30 September. However the ‘paws underlying peripherals suggest he outperformed his traditional and misleading stats (ERA). His 2.74 xFIP in August and 3.05 in September are a much more accurate picture of his late season painting. Furthermore considering the pitcher-friendly home park he will pitch half of his 2019 games at expect more improvement from the young groundball-heavy lefty.
MLB Odds: Pitching Future Prop investment OVER 8.5 wins.
Jack Flaherty SP St Louis Cardinals
Flaherty was the poster child for young MLB pitching inconsistency. During one stretch of starts in the middle of the 2018 summer the Cardinals right-hander allowed a total of five earned runs allowed over six starts and 37 innings. However the St Louis righty was easily distracted especially when pitching from the stretch. His immature demeanor on the mound found him competing with rage rather than focus. It took little more than a seeing-eye single or a home plate umpire with a small strike zone to fluster Flaherty.
Note that all indications are that the St Louis front office and coaching staff will put a cap on Flaherty’s innings this season. This season-strategy will result in a shortened season or skipped starts during the 2019 campaign so that the Cardinals can give their pitcher-loaded minor league system the opportunity to give their prospects work at the major league level.
My reliable sources have projected in the neighborhood of 150 innings and 25 starts for Flaherty this year. With that information winning 11 games will be a tall task.