Odds to Win 2019 HR Title
At the beginning of Major League Baseball Spring Training, the second week of February, I suggested taking an analytical approach to MLB Futures. I went as far as to add political satire to the article. And did such with by stating “So your investment style is like No 45’s, the Commander and Chief of the United States, in which you believe your gut knows more than the cerebral reach of an MIT graduate. If this best describes how you approach sports investing may I suggest you become more analytical in your approach.” Finn Factor: Odds to Win 2019 HR Title.
Just saying (writing).
You can find the aforementioned Finn Factor Home Run Future article at THIS LINK.
Home Runs and Hard Contact relationship
The 2018 Major League Baseball season saw one of the largest increases in hard hit percentage across the last three decades. More accurate since the government relinquished top secret alien technology and made it available to sports intellectuals. The Year 2018 was also a calendar year that saw total league wide home runs fall in total.
After years of staggering increases in home run totals along with the combination of a near league wide flat-line hard hit percentage it shouldn’t be a surprise that questions abound as to how this could be. The decline in home runs from the 2017 season to the 2018 campaign was the second largest percentage drop since 2002, according to Baseball Info Solutions, a data firm that has been tracking hard hit rates for the last 16 years.
2018 Home Run decline
Note that last year’s home run decrease was the largest numerical drop in long balls in back-to-back years since the 1994 strike. The jury is still out on the relevance of the latest technology introducing a methodology in swing mechanics geared to assist players with an optimal launch angle. In addition finds hard hit percentage and home run distance in the same area of the tracking graph, the upside.
While baseball is essentially the same game with the same rules and same diamond dimensions today as it was when it was first played the way a player approaches perfecting their profession is light-years different than it was 150 years ago. Hell, 25 years ago for that matter.
The study of the Three True Outcome theory (percentage) is not a measurable that should be shooed away or simply swatted like a house fly. Despite the Jekyll and Hyde percentages and schizophrenic behavior of player results the last two decades the (TTO%) results in 2018 increased for the 5th straight year.
I could attempt to outline the what, the why and the how of what I just wrote but I won’t. There isn’t enough time. The official start of the 2019 Major League Baseball season is just over a month away.
Home Run Totals vs Hard Contact % vs Balls hit in Play
However know that there is an explanation as to why home run totals can decrease at a record rate in less than 365 days while hard contact percentages increase. Without digging ourselves into a hole we can’t climb out of in time for the 2019 first pitch know the one primary variable that explains off the drop in HR is the fact that there was a decrease in “balls hit in play:” a year ago and an increase in strikeout percentage.
Knowing which franchise(s), coaching staff(s) and player(s) that are under the influence of swing mechanic theory (medication per se) is mission critical to making an MLB future investment and earning an ROI (return on investment). This applies to this article’s focus.. Odds to Win 2019 Home Run Title. But the aforementioned doesn’t assure success or cashing a futures ticket alone. There are endless considerations to insert into the winning formula.
Just to mention a couple of the long list of “outside the box” variables that influence a players wherewithal to go deep…one) a players history of staying healthy (or playing through injury)… two) yada…yada…yada… and more yada.
Home Runs/BABIP/ISO Measures
Yes, home runs were down a season ago. And yes so was BABIP (batted balls ending a plate appearance). Throw in the decline in ISO (isolated power) as another of the large number of baseball metrics that declined a season ago and explain to your banker that players were hitting the ball harder (higher velocity off the bat) than at any time in the history of the game and you are unlikely to get an approving nod to your request for an extension to pay your overdue mortgage.
But have faith that one mission critical measurement trumps all of the Sabermetric mumbo-jumbo I just outlined for you. That measure is “final score”.
A win is a win is a win
Furthermore, when it comes to affectionately appreciating the portrait of a gamblers life — his or her success vs. failure and abundance of luck or lack thereof — can be adored in a richly painted picture. That “Pic” can be found in the “gamer’s” bottom line… his/her bank account.
Looking to make a picturesque penny in Major League Baseball futures in 2019? Then visit my daily baseball information beginning today through the final game of the Fall Classic and you will succeed. Those that do their homework and invest as much time as money into their passion succeed.
Welcome to the wonder world of baseball, Major League Baseball, and the Finn Factor Gaming Tips.
The Finn Factor is published daily during the Major League Baseball season with a plethera of baseball free picks and future recommendations
My February HR Title Future Free Picks were as follows:
Best Bet: Rhys Hoskins (Philadelphia Phillies) 30-1
Longshot: Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers) 80-1
Updated Odds on my recommendations above
Rhys Hoskins checks in at 20-1
Christian Yelich odd’s are in a free fall — from 80-1 to and updated 2-1
It is just April so what the home run race looks like now is likely to be complete different by June.
A complete and updated list of the Las Vegas SuperBook‘s Odds to Win 2019 Regular Season Home Run Title