On Sunday, November 12, 2017, the 6-2 New England Patriots travel to Colorado to Sports Authority Field at Mile High to take on the 3-5 Denver Broncos. This is a contest that features what has been two of the best teams in the AFC over the last 20 years, but these two clubs are headed in opposite directions.
New England is the top team in the AFC, winning four straight including a 21-13 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday. Denver started out on fire, winning their first two games of the season, but they have gone just 1-5 since, including being drubbed by the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday 51-23. This is a team in desperate need of a victory if they are going to have any chance of reaching the playoffs, and unfortunately, they find themselves facing the league’s hottest team.
Neither of these teams has been particularly good against the spread this season. New England enters the contest 4-4 against the spread this season, but they are 5-1 in their last six games on the road against the spread. Straight up they have gone 16-2 in their last 18 games and are 5-0 in their last five games on the road straight up. In the last nine contest between these two New England is 6-3 against the spread. The total has also gone over in six of the last nine games. In Denver, the Patriots are 2-6 against the spread over there last eight and the total has gone under in five of the last seven.
The Broncos are 2-5-1 against the spread this season, and have gone under in four of their last six games at home. They are 1-5 straight up in their last six games but have gone 4-1 straight up in their last five games at home. Denver is 15-4 straight up in their last 19 games at home against the Patriots.
Spread: New England -8.5 ( +110); Denver +8.5 ( -130) Get the latest NFL odds direct from Las Vegas with WagerTalk Live Lines
Moneyline: New England -325; Denver +265
Totals: Over/Under 45.5 ( -110)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
As it always seems to be, the New England Patriots find themselves as the top team in the AFC. As long as Tom Brady is around it is difficult to see this team being anything but brilliant and, once again, the quarterback is having another outstanding season, completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 2541 yards and 16 touchdowns, while throwing just two interceptions. He has been sacked 21 times this year, but that never seems to stop the ageless wonder.
What is interesting is that despite being four games over .500, the Patriots have outscored their opponents by just 14 points this year. They have been in quite a few close games this year, with five games being decided by eight points or last, including five of the last six games this team has played. They simply find ways to win.
The Denver Broncos are a complete mess at this particular point. They looked like a serious Super Bowl contender early on, but four straight losses have virtually ended any Super Bowl aspirations that they have.
It has been the quarterback position that has been a trouble spot for this team, and is why they turned back to former starter Brock Osweiler hoping that he is the answer. Osweiler was signed a couple of weeks ago in the hopes that he can help this team to regain a little of their swagger, but his first start against Philadelphia last week was an unforgettable one, to say the least. He is completed just 5o percent of his passes so far, thrown two interceptions, and been sacked three times in just 42 pass attempts. There’s still a lot of work here to be done.
Even the vaunted Denver defense is suspect these days. They had given up 64 points through the first four games of the season, have yielded nearly double that many over the last four, including 51 against Philadelphia last week. This is a group that is struggling simply because the offense is not producing.
Patriots vs. Broncos Betting Lines
While it is true that New England does not play well in Denver, the truth is that these are two teams that are headed in completely opposite directions. New England has everything going their way while Denver is just a mess right now. It is true that 8.5 points on the road in Denver is a lot, but until the Broncos are able to prove that they can score on a consistent basis it’s a good bet to take Brady to cover the spread.
My Pick: New England -8.5 (+110)
Total: Over 45.5 (-110)