Cowboys vs Steelers Betting Preview
The Dallas Cowboys will be a double-digit home underdog for only the fourth time since 1980 when they face the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers set to start at 4:25 ET this Sunday. These storied franchises have only met seven times previously since 1990, and Dallas has had the better of Pittsburgh, winning five of the games and covering the number in each win. They have met every four seasons, with the last meeting being a barnburner 35-30 Dallas road victory as 3-point underdogs in 2016.
Stay on top of the latest NFL picks and predictions!
Injuries Decimating Dallas
So far, the 2020 season has seen many teams destroyed by injuries. The Philadelphia Eagles, who lead the NFC East, have had to active wide receivers from the practice squad. The 49ers have a MASH unit of a team, and now the COVID-19 virus has decimated their wide receivers for at least their game Thursday night with the Green Bay Packers.
Dallas has had critical injuries at many key skill positions, starting with All-Pro Zac Prescott, who was well on his way to the best season of his career. San Francisco and Philadelphia have found ways to win, not all that pretty, despite the injuries. Dallas has imploded amid a bitter division between the coaching staff and the players.
I have developed a power rating spreadsheet with Dallas raked 31st and just ahead of the last-place New York Jets. I was as shocked as you may be right now reading that statement, and believe me, I did double-check the advanced mathematics for accuracy. So, is Dallas now a contrarian play against the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers? Not a chance.
Bad Teams Equal Bad Bets
NFL Betting can appear complex and challenging to attain winning consistency throughout a season. Sometimes the apparent logical bet is the right one to make. Since 2010, the betting system has earned a solid 36-9 SU record for 80% wins and 33-9-3 ATS for 79% winning bets that covered the number by an average of 7.7 points. There are three requirements to meet for a validated betting opportunity:
- Bet on any team with a winning record on the season.
- The opponent has lost four of their last five games.
- The opponent has won less than 40% of their games on the season.
Bet the ‘UNDER’ With Elite Teams
The following betting system is an example of a contrarian type of bet that goes against public betting sentiment and conventional wisdom. Knowing when to pull the trigger on a contrarian bet can be difficult, but starting with a proven multiple-year betting system is a great starting point. The betting system has earned a 30-10 ‘UNDER’ record over the last five seasons. There are three requirements to validate a betting opportunity.
- Bet ‘UNDER’ with a home team.
- The home team has failed to cover the spread by a combined 49 points over their last five games.
- The team has won not more than 25% of their games on the season.
The 6-point teaser record betting the ‘UNDER’ has earned a 33-7 record, good for 83% wining bets since 2015. So, two of the three legs of our three-team teaser are the Saints +10 and the ‘UNDER’ 48-points in this matchup.
The Best of Roethlisberger
Big Ben is having the best season of his Hall-of-Fame-worthy career. No longer forced to win games with his arm and gutty game-winning drives, Roethlisberger now enjoys a balanced offensive attack. He ranks 15th with 246 pass attempts, 14thcompleting 167 passes, and 10th completing 68% of his passes on the season. Moreover, he has thrown 15 touchdown passes and has two game-winning drives in the fourth quarter. The biggest was last week in their win over the division rival Ravens.
In this matchup, I do not think it is foolish to lay double digits against a home dog that has more than just lost its way. I prefer discipline over dysfunction every time. Bet the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Meet the Capper: John Ryan
John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. After all, he has been kicking around in this sports data space and the life sciences space for 25 years. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports. He can found on Twitter too @johnRyanSports1.
Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?
- Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
- Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
- Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.
Make sure to bookmark all the above!