Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles NFL Week 13 Betting Preview

Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction

The Philadelphia Eagles train wreck of a season continued unabated Monday Night in the City of Brotherly Love. Carson Wentz continues to perform at levels suited more for a practice squad quarterback and nowhere near the $36MM salary he is on contract to receive next season. Head Coach Doug Pederson is coaching like he genuinely wants to get fired by owner Jeffry Lurie. Then there are the issues with General Manager Howie Roseman. He has orchestrated the franchise into a significant financial luxury tax crisis that forces them to let go of TE Zach Ertz at season end.

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Event: (471) Philadelphia Eagles +9 at (472) Green Bay Packers (o/u 46.5)
Date/Time: Sunday, December 6 at 4:25 p.m. EDT
Recommended Play: Packers -9

At the end of Monday’s debacle, Pederson went for a 2-point conversion instead of kicking the PAT, trailing by eight points. My clients, including myself, were grateful, to say the least, as we bet the Eagles +6.5-points. So it begs the question what chart was Pederson reading off to have made such a ridiculous decision. The 23-17 final score looks like a competitive game, except that it was not one.

The Philadelphia defense did show up and played with tremendous energy stopping the Seahawks twice on fourth down in their first two possessions. The first stop occurred on the Philadelphia 2-yard line. Alex Singleton and TJ Edwards continue to improve each week by playing their best game of the season Monday.

As much as the Philadelphia defense kept the team in the game, the offense was putting on a show that even NY Jets fans were grateful for their offense. As puzzling as Pederson’s 2-point conversion attempt was, it is positively unexplainable why RB Miles Sanders got six rushes for the game. Oh, wait, there is more. Why in the world did Peterson make the apparent change at the QB position by inserting Jalen Hurts and removing Carson Wentz, who averaged a horrifying 1.77 yards-per-attempt. In case you are interested, that 1.77 ratio is the lowest by a quarterback since the 2015 season.

Green Bay Packers on Deck

I had stated weeks ago that this stretch of games that started with Cleveland weeks ago could see Philadelphia go 0-5. They are 0-2 now, and their next three opponents are at Green Bay, hosting New Orleans, at Arizona, and all three are playoff teams. Then it could stretch to 0-6 with a loss in Week 16 at divisional rival Dallas.

Green Bay Defense Can Be Exploited

The Packers have struggled to contain their opponent’s ground attack, ranking 25thallowing 4.6 yards-per-attempt on the season. However, this is a bit misleading as they rank 8th with opponents calling an average of 24 rushing plays-per-game. The Packers have had leads at the half in all but two games, and six games had double-digit leads at the half. So, the Packer’s NFL-best scoring offense has taken opponents out of their game plans, eliminating most of the run plays.

In all 11 Eagle games, the opponent has had a lead and in eight held double-digit leads. Moreover, six of the last seven Eagle opponents had double-digit leads at some point in the game.

A Key Matchup to Watch

Philadelphia played very aggressively on defense, and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz had a superb play-calling game. However, this week is going to be tougher to get pressure on Aaron Rogers. Green Bay has the best left tackle in the NFL in former Colorado Buffalo teammate David Bakhtiari, who was drafted in the fourth round of the 2013 NFL draft. Since 2016, he has ranked in the top-6 tackles in the NFL, including second-best in the 2017 and 2018 seasons per Pro Football Focus He has allowed zero sacks, zero quarterback hits, just seven hurries, and has remarkably been flagged only three times for the season. There is not Philadelphia defensive player that can even come close to matching up equally to Bakhtiari.

A Look at a Highly Profitable Betting System

This ten-year betting system has earned a money-making 47-22-1 against-the-spread (ATS) record good for 68% winning bets. The Requirements are:

  • Bet on favorites, including pick.
  • The favorite is allowing 23 to 27.5-points-per-game.
  • The current opponent is allowing 23 to 27.5-points-per-game.
  • The favorite is coming off back-to-games in which 50 total points were scored.

Green Bay easily defeated the Chicago Bears 41-25 and had zero turnovers and a turnover margin of 3 in their previous game. Green Bay is 21-7-1 for 75% ATS coming off a game having a turnover margin of 3 or better.

Projections From The Machine Learning Model

Green Bay is projected to average a minimum of 6.5 yards-per-play OR will gain at least 1.0 or more yards-per-play than Philadelphia and gain a minimum of 400 total yards. In past home games in which Green Bay met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to an outstanding 13-2 straight-up (SU) and 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 9 points in games played since 2010.

Take the Green Bay Packers -9 to -10-points


Meet the Capper: John Ryan

John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. After all, he has been kicking around in this sports data space and the life sciences space for 25 years. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports. He can found on Twitter too @johnRyanSports1.


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