Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins NFL Week 16 Betting Preview

Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins Prediction

Both the NFC and AFC conferences have seven playoff spots with three of them earned by the Kansas City Chiefs, the Buffalo Bills, and the Pittsburgh Steelers. The AFC South sees a tie on top with the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans tied with 10-4 records. The Miami Dolphins are in the seventh playoff spot, but tied with the Baltimore Ravens with 9-5 records. So, a Miami win over the Las Vegas Raiders would fortify their playoff seeding with one week to go.

Stay on top of the latest NFL updates direct from Las Vegas!

The Dolphins got the job done last week in taking down the New England Patriots 22-12 and easily covered the spread as 1.5-point home underdogs. Their defense played exceptionally well and now will face a highly inconsistent and defensively flawed Raiders team on the road.

Lynn Bowden Emerges as No. 1 WR

In the win over the Patriots the Dolphins dominated getting 26 first downs and held the ball for over 37 minutes. The Patriots are on eof the best running teams in the NFL and the Dolphins defense held them to 117 yards on 22 carries and zero touchdowns. Rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa played like a seasoned veteran completing 20 of 26 passes thrown for 145 yards including two touchdowns on the ground. Former Kentucky WR Lynn Bowden, Jr led the team with seven targets, catching six balls, for 45 yards. He played 71% and 90% in the last two games for the Dolphins and has emerged as Tua’s favorite target. He will receive even more targets this week knowing the Raiders rank last in the NFL in many defensive categories.

The Raiders Defense is Pathetic

The Raiders defense ranks 29th allowing 421 points, 28th allowing 6.0 yards-per-play, and dead last allowing a score on 51.1% of all opponent possessions. By comparison, the Dolphins defense ranks first allowing just 254 points despite ranking 20th allowing 5.7 yards-per-play, and first allowing a score on just 27.9% of all opponent possessions. The Dolphins also rank first forcing a turnover on 16.9% of all possessions. The Raiders cannot stop the run or the pass and another highly disciplined outing by Tua will be all that is needed for a critical road win.

A Turnover Betting System

The Dolphins have forced an opponent to commit at least one turnover in every game played this season. The Raiders have had five games where the opponent committed zero turnovers and last week’s 30-27 loss was one of them. So, this situation falls into a solid betting system that has earned 75-43-7 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons.
1. Bet on a Road team.
2. The road team had no more than one turnover in their previous game.
3. The road team is averaging less than 1.25 turnovers on the season.
4. The Home team did not force their previous opponent to commit any turnovers.

Here is a subset of this system where we query only games after week 8 or in other words in the second-half of the season. Then the record soars to 44-22-2 ATS for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons. Bet the Dolphins.


Meet the Capper: John Ryan

John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. After all, he has been kicking around in this sports data space and the life sciences space for 25 years. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports. He can found on Twitter too @johnRyanSports1.


Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

  • Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
  • Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
  • Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.

Make sure to bookmark all the above!