Monday Night Free Play: Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

After losing its season opener at home against the Titans, the Cleveland Browns’ hype train hits the road to face the Jets under the Monday Night lights. Despite being upset as 5.5-point home favorites, the Browns remain grossly overrated by the betting market, which is partially driven by public misperception.

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Event: (9289) Cleveland Browns at (9290) New York Jets
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 17, 2019 2AM EDT
Play: New York Jets 6.5 (-105)

My math model actually favors New York by 1.34 points in this game and the Jets apply to a very good 75-34 ATS (68.8%) system of mine that invests on certain NFL underdogs (or pick) versus teams with a negative turnover margin. New York also falls into a 100% perfect 12-0 ATS (since 1995) that backs certain NFL teams playing in the second of consecutive home games.

Since 1980, NFL home underdogs off an upset loss in which they allowed 21 or fewer points are 41-20-1 ATS, including 30-10-1 ATS when playing with revenge. Better yet, if these home underdogs enter off a divisional loss like the Jets, they improve to 18-1 ATS. Cleveland is a money-burning 13-33 ATS following a loss, 2-8 ATS off a double-digit home loss and 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in this series.

Following last Sunday’s collapse, New York head coach Adam Gase was furious with his team. He was particularly angry with the receivers, saying, “We made some mistakes and they were fatal to us … They need to do a better job of executing what they’re supposed to be doing.”

In response, the Jets traded for wide receiver Demaryius Thomas, who had seven catches for 87 yards and two touchdowns in the Patriots’ preseason finale. Thomas is familiar with Gase; he served as the Denver Broncos’ wide receivers coach from 2010 to 2013 and then as the team’s offensive coordinator from 2013 to ’14.

Finally, NFL teams coming off a season-opening one-point loss are 12-3-1 ATS since 1980, including 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS at home and 5-0 ATS in the last five games overall. The wrong team is favored in this game – grab the points with the live home underdog and invest with confidence.

Note: New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold will be sidelined indefinitely after being diagnosed with mononucleosis, coach Adam Gase announced Thursday. Trevor Siemian will start Monday night against the Cleveland Browns.

The betting market has overreacted to the news and the value rests squarely with the Jets.


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