Free NHL Pick: Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues

Last week, the Blues and Blackhawks played one of the wildest regular season games in recent memory. The Blackhawks scored five first period goals, then failed to put another puck in the net, falling in overtime 6-5. Can this week’s version top that classic? Probably not, but we’ll be looking to cash in on NoJokeNHL’s Best Bet.

Date: Saturday, November 14th 2015
Start Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: St. Louis Blues -130; O/U U5 (+115)

A few trends courtesy of our friends at Don Best

  • Chicago is 8-8 ATS this season, costing a bettor -2.5 units over the early part of the 2015-16 season.
  • St. Louis is 11-5 ATS this season, earning a bettor +5.5 units.
  • The Blackhawks are 1-5 on the road, with four of six road games going under the total.
  • A Blues game has not gone over the total in St. Louis this season, with five unders and one push.

Who to Watch: The MVP is back! Conn Smythe Trophy winner Duncan Keith makes his return from a torn meniscus on Saturday, along with veteran defenseman Michal Rozsival (ankle). Both players should provide a spark to the struggling Blackhawks who are 2-4-1 in their last seven games, including losses to middle-of-the-pack teams like the Jets and Devils (twice).

What’s the Key: Can the Blues generate offense at home? St. Louis is averaging 1.8 goals per game at home in regulation, and 3.2 goals on the road. The sample size is small, but the trend keeps going in the wrong direction for St. Louis. The Blues haven’t scored more than three goals in regulation since the season opener, and got shut out in the last home game.

Where We’re Leaning: Don’t fall in love with recent trends. Including last week’s 6-5 affair, the over has hit in five of Chicago’s last six games, but we’re confident that streak is more the exception than the rule. The Blackhawks play three back-to-backs in the next 14 days. They need to clamp down on defense and play smart, efficient hockey to get through this stretch. With Keith and Rozsival returning to the lineup, expect a much tighter game between these long-time rivals. Only one out of five meetings last season eclipsed the total. We’ll be making a play on the under (either 5 or 5.5) in NoJokeNHL’s best bet.

Direct from Las Vegas, WagerTalk TV host Marco D’Angelo (@MarcoInVegas) and John Marks (@NoJokeNHL) talk some hockey as NoJokeNHL gives a free NHL pick on the Saturday matchup between the Chicago Blackhawks and St. Louis Blues.

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