Burnley were really careful in their first match of this season’s Premier League. They split the points against Southampton on the road, but they also have other duties too. They are in-between their fight in the Europa League qualifiers, but they will now play host to Watford on Sunday. Watford were really good in their home match against Brighton and started the season with a win.
Date/Time: 8-19-2018, 08:30 EDT
Spread: Watford +0.25
Total: 2 Goals
Burnley (0-0-1) are coming off a goal-less draw on the road against Southampton in their first match of the season. They made a really great start in the first half, trying to take an early lead. They were not all that good in the second half, while neither team managed to score. That was the third consecutive goal-less draw for Burnley, who are fighting in the Europa League qualifiers. They did manage to eliminate Turkish side Basaksehir on Thursday, and will clash against Greek side Olympiacos Piraeus next Thursday. Burnley will try to avoid spending a lot of resources in their match against Watford, as a possible qualification to the Europa League group stage can bring a lot of money to the team.
On the other hand, Watford (1-0-0) were excellent in the season opener against Brighton at home last week. They were really strong throughout the whole match, and didn’t allow their opponents to take a single shot on target. Watford took the lead at the 35th minute with Pereyra, who doubled the team’s lead at the 54th minute. Watford easily held on to their lead and eventually won by 0-2. They can now take advantage of the situation and grab at least a point from this trip.
Burnley won both matches against Watford last season, by 0-1 in this venue before a 2-1 on the road. They have the upper hand in this match-up over the years (14-8-7), and have lost just one of the last eight against Watford (3-1-4). Moreover, they have been excellent as hosts (8-2-4) and have not lost here since 2004 (6-0-4).
The last four matches between the two sides in this venue have featured Under 2.5 Goals. I expect a very careful match between the two, where Burnley will try to keep it slow. They have a crucial Europa League match coming up, and Watford can capitalize here. I will back them up to cover the spread here, in what looks like a draw at half-time.
Premier League Burnley vs Watford Prediction: Watford +0.25 (-114)
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