Serie A Free Play: Torino at AC Milan

AC Milan vs Torino Serie A Predictions

Saturday I’m looking at BOTH AC Milan -0.75 and the OVER which is set currently set at 2.75 goals as they are home against Torino. AC Milan come into this match off their first loss of the Serie A season, losing at home 1-3 to Juventus which certainly tightens the title race up below them as they still sit atop the standings by one point over Inter Milan.

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This looks like a great bounce back spot for AC Milan. They currently have the 5th best xG differential in the league at +0.81 per game while Torino are 14th at -0.53. Of the usual top six teams in the league, AC Milan has a much higher xGA mark at 1.36 per game and that is the big reason why I fully believe they will be falling from the top spot in the table sooner rather than later. However, that’s a good indicator for grabbing the over here.

Only five teams have a higher xGA mark than Torino’s 1.75 this season while they have allowed the 2nd most goals scored in the league with 33 through 16 games. Andrea Belotti is a great goal scorer for Torino with nine goals scored this year and I just don’t trust AC Milan’s defense here to keep a clean sheet.

Milan have a 12-4 O-U record on the year, averaging 3.4 goals per game, and including Champions League games have seen 10 of their 12 home games finish over the total as well, while Torino has an 11-5 O-U record averaging 3.7 goals per game. This total seems too good to be true but I’ll gladly take the bait on the over and I firmly believe Milan can get this Over themselves. I’ll be sprinkling a little on the AC Milan 3-1 Torino correct score as well at +1450.


Line Parameter: 4% a -0.75 up to -140, 3% at -1.0 and 3% to 3.0, but pay up to -130 to get 2.75.


Meet the Capper: Nick Borrman

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Of course, you can’t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.


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