Ajax stunned the world with their feats in the Champions League last season. But this season has been a little bit different. They will now need at least a point in their upcoming match in order to mathematically qualify. They will play host to Valencia on Tuesday, who are 2nd in the group and are also in need of some points.
Date/Time: 12-10-2019, 15:00 EST
Spread: Valencia +1
Total: 3.25 Goals
Ajax (3-1-1) played a really balanced match against Lille on the road in their last task. They took an early lead though, and sealed the three points with another goal at the hour mark. That 0-2 win kept them at the top of Group H with 10 points, two points ahead of both Valencia and Chelsea. Ajax now need at least a draw here to mathematically qualify. In the reverse match they beat Valencia to become the only Dutch team to beat them on Spanish soil. But they have been operating greatly under coach Erik ten Hag, losing just three of their last 27 European matches (15-3-9).
On the other hand, Valencia (2-1-2) scored a late equalizer to split the points in a 2-2 home draw against Chelsea. They took the lead in that match and even missed a penalty kick, but kept their qualification hopes alive. Valencia are sitting 2nd in the group with 8 points, just as many as Chelsea. Chelsea are playing against the already eliminated Lille, so Valencia really need a win here to stay afloat. However, they have won just one of their last six matches in Holland (1-1-4). And such matches do not often produce a lot of goals, with just 1.67 per-match on average.
Ajax beat Valencia by a confident 3-0 in Spain in the reverse fixture and remained undefeated against this opponent (1-0-2). Even a draw here would be enough to see them through to the next round. Valencia know that Chelsea have a seemingly easy job in the other match of the group. So they will fight for the win here. But their defense has been bleeding on the road so far in the season, with just one clean sheet in ten matches. Taking the Under 3.25 Goals here, as I expect a really careful match between the two sides.
Champions League Ajax vs Valencia Prediction: Under 3.25 Goals (-110)
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