Italy started the 2020 EURO Cup Qualifiers with a solid home win against Finland. They weren’t all that good but they played yet another signature match. They will now remain at home for their next task, where they will host Liechtenstein on Tuesday. Liechtenstein could not help it but lose against Greece and are one of the weakest teams in the competition.
Date/Time: 3-26-2019, 15:45 EST
Spread: Italy -4.5
Total: 5 Goals
Italy (1-0-0) were not actually spectacular in their home match against Finland, but still got the job done. They did create some scoring chances in the first half but only had a single shot on target. Through that shot came their opening goal at the 7th minute by Barella. Finland were much better in the second half but Italy sealed the deal with another goal at he 74th minute for the final 0-2. Italy usually have low scores in their matches, with each of their last eight featuring Under 2.5 Goals. Moreover, they have conceded one or no goals in each of their last eight.
On the other hand, Liechtenstein (0-1-0) did not have much to expect from their match against Greece. They tried to defend to the best of their abilities but they eventually met a slim loss. Greece quickly took the upper hand in that match and created an awful lot of scoring chances. They eventually took the lead at the end of the first half, and doubled that at the 80th minute for the final 2-0. Liechtenstein are the lowest-ranking team in the group, and have not fared well against top-20 teams. In their last seven such matches they have failed to score a single goal and have conceded a total of 35 goals.
This will be the third time these two teams play against each other and Italy clearly have the upper hand. The two teams met in the 2018 World Cup qualifiers where Italy easily won both matches. After a great 4-0 on the road they doubled that up with an even bigger 0-5 at home.
Italy do tend to keep low scores in their matches but this one is different. Since the goal difference is a counting stat, Italy will try to win by as many goals as they can here. This is why, despite my initial skepticism, I will go with the home team to cover the spread here.
EURO Cup Qualifiers Italy vs Liechtenstein Prediction: Italy -4.5 (-115)