Fiorentina made a great start in the season and lost just one of their first six, but have somewhat fallen off in the past month. They will be hoping to return to winning ways after three unsuccessful attempts when they will play host to Roma on Saturday. Roma have been in exactly opposite form, as they made a terrible start but have been much better lately compared to that. Even so, they failed to win each of their last two matches for the Serie A and will come here looking for a win.
Date/Time: 11-3-2018, 13:00 EDT
Spread: Roma +0.0
Total: 2.75 Goals
Fiorentina (4-3-3) played a really balanced match on the road against Torino last week, where the two teams split the points in a 1-1 draw. Fiorentina took an early lead at the 2nd minute with Benassi, but their opponents pulled even at the 13th minute when Lafont scored an own goal. It was a very physical second half with four yellow cards and not a single change in the score. Fiorentina have been in poor form lately, as they have won just one of their last five (1-2-2) and kept a single clean sheet. They are now sitting at the 6th spot of the Serie A with 15 points, having scored 16 goals so far, while conceding just 8. They have been dominant at home so far (4-0-1), where they have kept three clean sheets and have scored 13 goals so far.
On the other hand, Roma (4-3-3) are also coming off a 1-1 draw in their last match, which was a road trip to Napoli. They took the lead at the 14th minute with El Shaarawy and were holding on to the result. However, they conceded a late goal to eventually split the points in a 1-1 draw. Roma have been in dominant form lately, as they have lost just once in their last seven matches in all competitions (5-1-1), and have kept four clean sheets in that span. Roma are now sitting at the 8th spot of the league table with 15 points, having scored 17 goals against 13 conceded. However, they have been pretty bad on the road so far (2-4-1 in all competitions), keeping clean sheets in just their two wins.
The two teams exchanged away wins last season, with Roma winning by 4-2 in this venue before falling by 2-0 at home. Roma have been really great in this venue in the past five years, losing just once in the process (4-1-3). Only two of those matches featured Over 2.5 goals though.
Fiorentina have been really careful so far in the season, and only three of their ten matches featured Over 2.5 Goals. Roma have produced just one match with Over 2.5 Goals on the road so far (out of five), and combined with the head to head history, I will take the Under 2.75 Goals here.
Serie A Fiorentina vs Roma Prediction: Under 2.75 Goals (-112)
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